S&P 500 futures are soft this morning, flirting with their first drop through the 10-DMA in three weeks and breaking the dashed red trend line from Aug 16.
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Tag: BTC
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Update on BTC: Sep 7, 2021
BTC tumbled sharply earlier today, coming within 400 of the 42,500 target we discussed on Aug 25 [see More of the Same]:
BTC reversed just short of its .618 Fib. Although the cloud remains bullish and it’s above all of its SMAs, it feels tenuous to me. I think we get a cloud backtest here, ideally at the 42,500 level.
It rallied from its lows to close above its SMA200, which is about the only bright spot on the charts.
Will it hold?continued for members… (more…)
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OPEC: Will They or Won’t They?
OPEC+ is expected to increase production by another 400,000 bpd in today’s meeting, another dagger in the heart of the stubborn oil/gas rally. Of course, at this juncture, CL can backtest its SMA200 without even making a lower low. So, perhaps a pullback will finally be allowed.
Given how important rising oil/gas prices have been to equity performance, stocks might just have a hard time digesting a significant pullback.
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More of the Same
If you liked yesterday, today is shaping up as more of the same. But, there are still a few warning signs tugging at the market’s sleeve.
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Monday Morning Meltup
Futures are continuing their meltup in the pre-market on a 4% bounce in crude oil and the usual overnight slump in VIX.
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Charts I’m Watching: Aug 20, 2021
COVID deaths continue to mount and the return to work pushes further into the future, a negative backdrop for equities at a time when they’re losing momentum from the reflation factors.
Futures are off mildly after bouncing off their overnight lows.
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Charts I’m Watching: Jul 6, 2021
Stocks rarely drop over a 3-day weekend. This one was no exception. The miniscule decline we saw in the futures last night has been all but erased despite a conciliatory 5% bump in VIX to backtest its SMA10. No fuss, no muss.
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Charts I’m Watching: Jun 21, 2021
ES came within 9 points of our next downside target before getting a nice bounce motivated primarily by USDJPY, which was working flat out to save the NKD from a scary, and long overdue dive to its SMA200.
This bounce will be quite important to the bulls, who are no doubt hoping to avoid a bearish 10/20 cross.continued for members… (more…)
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Bad News is Good Again
If yesterday’s better than expected ADP jobs data was bad news, then it stands to reason that today’s worse than expected DOL NFP print would be good for the market.
Well, that, and the 13% pounding VIX has taken…
As it was hammered back below its SMA10, ES was ramped up above its SMA10. Funny how that works.
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Update on Bitcoin: May 19, 2021
BTC reached our next downside target at the SMA200 [see: May 13 BTC Update] and plunged right through to the next downside target at 30,108 well ahead of schedule.
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