In our last update on Bitcoin [see: Apr 13 Update] we noted that BTC would likely reverse at the Fib extension at 62,977.

It is fitting that BTC chose the day the latest CPI data is released to reach our next upside target [f]rom Bonds Not Buying It on Feb 23…

As always, our approach is to look for a pullback upon reaching these major Fib levels, but be prepared to be stopped out if/when it pushes through them. It has required nerves of steel, but has also been an exercise in patience.

As it turned out, BTC worked very hard to unnerve us, pushing through 62,977 for three more days before reversing hard. It reached our initial downside target of 59,010 on the 18th and the channel bottom at 48,837 a few days later.

By the time that bounce reached the channel and cloud top on the 29th, however, the technical picture had eroded. From Not Transitory:

Bitcoin’s cloud problems are confirmed by its RSI. It’s perhaps time for the channel to finally break down and for BTC to start eyeing its SMA200.

This catches us up to today, as BTC’s channel indeed broke down, allowing it to tag our 46,433 target earlier this morning.

continued for members…

With BTC dropping out of the cloud, and the cloud about to turn red around May 19 – about the same time the SMA200 might be reaching the blue 2.24 Fib at 40,180 (also the red 3.618 at 40,138) – I see no reason it shouldn’t continue its drop.It was in the salmon channel for over five months, but at this point I’m more interested in the yellow channel Note that RSI’s channel lows corresponded with BTC’s channel lows on Apr 25.  Today’s lows with a higher low in RSI, therefore, represent positive divergence – normally a bullish condition. Therefore traders might wish to wait for a drop back through 46,433 before shorting this very volatile instrument/currency/whatever.GLTA.