Futures remain under pressure as we approach the open – despite VIX’s 5% smackdown yesterday.
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Posts
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Powell: Inflation Not Over
“Inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go,” Powell asserted in prepared remarks in advance of his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
Our charts certainly agree. As posted last week, there is little chance of inflation not bouncing back up unless oil and gas prices collapse from current levels.
Futures are off moderately in anticipation of Powell’s truth-telling.
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Charts I’m Watching Jun 20, 2023
Futures are off modestly following the long holiday weekend, OPEX and much hotter than expected housing starts.
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No Surprise
“I can’t believe stocks rallied so strongly into options expiration!” said no one.
Between VIX’s plunge, the euro’s ramp, and the yield curve’s decimation, bears have had no chance – even as fundamentals argued otherwise.continued for members… (more…)
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FOMC Aftermath
Things got a little hectic after the FOMC’s hawkish pause, but the equity market performed as planned.
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FOMC Day: Jun 14, 2023
According to futures and talking heads, there’s a 94% chance that the Fed will pause its rate hikes this afternoon – though perhaps with a hawkish tilt. By our reckoning, equities have piled on at least 6% in the past few weeks in anticipation of this outcome.
Is it justified?continued for members… (more…)
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Headline CPI Falls, Core Stubborn
Substantial YoY drops in energy prices continue to dampen headline inflation…
…while core inflation gained 0.4% for the third month in a row.
The comparison between YoY gas prices and CPI illustrates the outsized influence energy prices have on headline inflation.
Futures, however, popped on the print on the assumption that the Fed will pause its rate hikes despite hotter than expected PCE and employment data that would argue otherwise.
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Charts I’m Watching: Jun 12, 2023
Futures ramped up past a key Fib level overnight on hopes that the Fed will pause any further rate hikes this week. Will SPX follow suit?
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Charts I’m Watching: Jun 9, 2023
The prop job continues, with VIX reaching a lower low and the DXY still under pressure.
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Jobless Claims Spike Higher
Initial claims spiked to levels not seen since October 2021, another indication of a slowing economy. Applications rose by 28,000 to 261,000, well above the consensus of 237K.
So far, futures have ignored the print.
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