If you liked the last four sessions, you’ll love the way this one is shaping up.
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Posts
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Charts I’m Watching: Nov 8, 2023
VIX and the 10Y have both reached key chart pattern support.
It’s a little early for a sprint to the barn. Will the algos take a breather?continued for members… (more…)
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Charts I’m Watching: Nov 7, 2023
Futures are off slightly but still hugging the 50-day moving average as we approach the open.
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Charts I’m Watching: Nov 6, 2023
Things are very quiet this morning following last week’s spasmodic rally on a collapse of vol and sharp drop in the 10Y.
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Don’t Forget About the 2s10s
While VIX’s 31% collapse in the past week…
…has, as expected, fueled an impressive rebound…
…we shouldn’t forget about the 2s10s. The 10Y retreated from our upside target on cue. But, the 2Y has been gradually rolling over.
As long as the 2s10s inversion persists, the year end rally should be safe. But, history shows us that when it unwinds things can get ugly in a hurry.continued for members… (more…)
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Charts I’m Watching: Nov 2, 2023
SPX and ES got all the way up to their SMA200s – the most significant overhead resistance – on yesterday’s vol collapse. Last night, an additional 4% smackdown in VIX put ES over its SMA200.
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FOMC Decision: Nov 1, 2023
Futures have bounced back from moderate overnight losses in advance of this afternoon’s FOMC decision.
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Charts I’m Watching: Oct 31, 2023
Futures are up slightly on as investors look ahead to tomorrow’s FOMC decision.
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PCE in Line, Spending is Not
PCE (+0.4%) came in slightly higher than consensus (+0.3%.) Core PCE was in line with expectations at +0.3% MoM and 3.7% YoY. Personal spending (+0.7%), however, was well above consensus (0.5%, 0.4% prior) and personal income (0.3%.)
In other words, spending increased faster than income. As discussed yesterday, this speaks to a slowing nominal inflation rate in the face of already high prices that are pinching those whose savings are depleted.
Yesterday, ES nailed our 4153 target from July…
…and has since bounced modestly on the PCE data and AMZN‘s earnings.
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