September CPI came in higher than expected, at 0.4% MoM and 3.7% YoY versus estimates of 0.3% and 3.6%. Core CPI (less food and energy) remained elevated at 4.1%.
The details reveal continuing challenges with shelter, food and energy.
While the YoY print has trended lower… 
…the last two monthly prints suggest that inflation might be leveling out at elevated levels.
Bottom line, the YoY trend is of little benefit to consumers who are tapped out, with depleted savings and higher expenses including the resumption of student loan payments. We don’t see a significant drop in CPI in the months ahead unless oil/gas prices collapse – a scenario that seems unlikely given recent events in the Middle East.
Futures have lost most of their overnight ramp and are almost back to flat.
continued for members…
Sorry, this content is for members only.Click here to get access.
Already a member? Login below… |