pebblewriter

Posts

  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 10, 2023

    Still on the road, will catch up tonight.

  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 9, 2023

    I will be traveling the next two days. All of our targets for equities, currencies, and commodities remain unchanged.

  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 8, 2023

    Futures are down sharply as yesterday’s currency moves and VIX smackdown are being unwound by Moody’s banking downgrades.  At least banks aren’t waking up to a 40% windfall profit tax such as Italy just imposed.

    This timely bit of truthiness certainly has the potential to get ES to our SMA50 target in the lead up to Thursday’s CPI print. As for XLF, the timing couldn’t be worse.

    Fear not, the Fed is already tapping the brakes.

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  • CPI Coming Up

    Futures are up moderately, primarily on the DXY stall and the usual overnight VIX smackdown. But, most attention will be focused on Thursday’s CPI print.

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  • Update on Currencies: Aug 4, 2023

    Futures are up moderately on USD weakness.  The EURUSD has backtested its recently broken red TL and its SMA10, sending the DXY back below a TL it was threatening to break above.  This supports our thesis that the SMA200 is the most important target, but that the tag might wait until it reaches 1.087 or so.

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  • AAPL & AMZN on Deck

    Yesterday’s stronger than expected ADP data and the Fitch downgrade did a number on stocks, with several indicators officially turning bearish for the first time in months. But, AAPL and AMZN, which make up over 10% of the S&P 500, haven’t reported yet. So, it might be a little early for bears to get excited.

    We charted AMZN last week [see: Amazon – Can It Keep Delivering?] noting that it had reached important resistance and was overdue for a reversal. It tested important support at its 50-day moving average yesterday which, if broken, could easily usher in another 10%+ to the downside.

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  • Fitch Downgrades US

    Fitch downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+, adding to stocks’ overnight decline.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 1, 2023

    With the July meltup finally behind us, futures are off moderately.

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  • BoJ: Just Kidding

    It’s a big week for the market as many of the most important stocks are reporting amidst ongoing questions about the strength of the economy.

    This morning, however, it’s all about the BoJ again. After effectively raising interest rates, they’ve jumped into the market to make sure interest rates don’t actually rise – boosting the USDJPY and, as a result, equity futures.

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  • Amazon: Can it Keep Delivering?

    AMZN stock cares about its 200-day moving average. In fact, it cares a lot. When it pushed above its 2903 Fibonacci target in late 2020, it spent 8 months waiting for the SMA200 (the thick red line below) to arrive and another 11 months defending it. When it finally broke down in January 2022, it began a plunge that ultimately exceeded 50%.  Since January 2023, it has recovered nicely, clawing back above the SMA200 to the midline of the channel that dates back to the year 2000.But, this leaves it at its 200-week moving average and overbought amidst negative divergence while long overdue for a backtest of its 200-day moving average. A backtest from current prices would amount to about 20% – though the SMA200 is on the rise.

    It should be noted that AMZN has been more volatile than the overall market. But, it’s not hard to imagine a sharp decline in the third largest component of the S&P500 leaving a mark on stocks in general.

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