Futures are flat ahead of tomorrow’s initial claims…
…with VIX plumbing lows not seen since Feb 14, 2020, a mere 10 days before it broke out and soared to 85.47.
As we’ve noted countless times, SPX broke out of its 2020-2022 decline only after VIX was hammered below a trend line dating back to Jan 2018.
If it breaks above the Aug 16, 2022 highs of 4325, it will require lower lows by VIX. Otherwise, 4311.69 remains important overhead resistance.
continued for members… (more…)
ES came within 4 points of its .618 retracement of the drop from the Jan 4, 2022 highs. SPX came within 12 points of its. From a harmonics standpoint, we’re at a critical potential turning point for equities.
continued for members… (more…)
Stocks were up sharply on Friday…
…as VIX plumbed new 2-year lows.
continued for members… (more…)
Non-farm payrolls exploded higher in May, tallying 339K versus 190K consensus. On the other hand, unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.7%.
Futures initially slumped, as blowout job gains argue for further Fed tightening. But, VIX was hammered to lows of 15.12, a level not seen since Nov 2021, and the overnight ramp was salvaged, for now.
continued for members… (more…)
ADP beat estimates by a mile: 278K versus 160K. This puts even more emphasis on tomorrow’s jobs report as two Fed presidents are suggesting that a pause is in order.
Futures have given up their 20+ pt ramp job.
continued for members… (more…)
Futures are off about 0.50% as the opening approaches, continuing a slump which began at our 4243 target from early April.
continued for members… (more…)
The meltup continues on yet another after-hour VIX dump.
continued for members… (more…)
If you’re a retailer, you might be thrilled with the personal income and personal spending beat last month (0.4% vs 0.3% exp and 0.8% versus 0.4% expected.) If you’re a manufacturer, you might be pleased with durable goods coming in at a +1.1% versus the -1.3% expected.
But, if you’re a member of the FOMC, you have to be chagrined that those hot numbers, combined with hotter core and headline PCE and tightening credit conditions, will force tighter monetary conditions. 
The algos agreed for a few minutes, but were quickly reminded of the requirement to take their cues from VIX.
continued for members… (more…)
Futures bounced off our 50-day MA target and are up sharply on NVDA‘s blowout earnings/forecast, egged on by Speaker McCarthy’s latest promise that a debt ceiling resolution is on the way.
Of course, this bullishness is unwarranted from a Fed rate hike perspective. Initial claims came in below expectations and Q2 GDP (the deflator was 4.2% vs 4.0 expected) was hotter than expected. Not exactly a scenario that supports a pause/drop.
Unless VIX plunges below 18.58, this ramp job should be faded.
continued for members… (more…)
Futures are off about 0.5% in advance of the latest FOMC minutes. While these releases don’t often shed much light on what to expect, they can help us understand what the Fed fears the most. Based on recent comments, the fear of sticky inflation seems to be outweighing the fear of a recession.
With the debt ceiling crisis, banking crisis and recession still grabbing headlines, it’s clear that the Fed is still stuck between a rock and a hard place.
continued for members… (more…)
