UPDATE: 10:10 AM PDT The bears are hanging in there, not about to go quietly. We’ve dipped below the 1272 target I had in mind, and did something interesting in the process. The rising wedge I drew this morning (bottom chart below) was a little too cute. It led right to 1320. Since rising wedges … continue reading →
The market nearly succumed today following a dramatic test of the All One Market hypothesis. In a lame attempt to curry favor with voters, the administration waged war on high oil prices. They brought a peashooter to the front lines, but their first shot hit the market right between the eyes. In a move as … continue reading →
The White House’s brain trust thought this would help? US Plans to Release 30 Million Barrels of Oil From Strategic Reserves http://www.cnbc.com/id/43508255 Come on, guys; everyone knows that markets are very much in sync these days. This little stink bomb took crude down $4 and an already fragile market down another 20 points. While lower … continue reading →
Once again, the financial establishment must be wondering how to cancel the Bernanke Show. Though, that’s not the real reason the market is down 21 points to 1265. It’s the economy, of course. With a little help from a bone-headed move to tap the strategic oil reserve. And, this morning, we get a little taste … continue reading →
I’ve been posting for the past month about the similarities between this topping pattern and those of 2000 and 2007. [see Deja Vu, Channel Surfing, You’ve Got a Fan, etc.] Here are the charts I’ve developed that show just how similar they are, and what I think they tell us about the next month or … continue reading →
First, a quick recap of the forecasts currently in play: June 8, Deja Vu: Comparisons of this pattern to the 2007 top; expected rebound to 1320 – intersection of rising wedge, fan line from 2007 top, trend line from May 2 top; target date June 29. June 10, Channel Surfing: Should bounce off 2-std dev … continue reading →
The Bernanke managed to not send the markets down this time. He struck as neutral a tone as possible, giving both the bulls and the bears something to hang their hats on. Bottom line: no impact. The climb to 1320+ should continue as planned. The current retreat, as discussed yesterday, should be contained at 1287-ish, … continue reading →
UPDATE: 11:25 AM PDT The market is currently around 1295, up big on the day as expected. I’m expecting a brief pause here at the 20 SMA, with a possible pullback to the fan line at 1289 or 1290. But, the trend is still up. There is a more significant correction coming, probably around 1311. … continue reading →
9:35 PDT Watching the 5-minute on SPX. If this little correction bounces here at 1269-1271.50, we’ll complete an inverted H&S; pattern and a bullish 5-0 pattern that could send SPX to 1300+. Also, keep an eye on VIX. It’s possibly forming a H&S; pattern that could send it to 17.30. … continue reading →
UPDATE 12:35 PDT The Gartley busted as the VIX took off for the moon. Busted Gartley’s often become butterflies, which is exactly what happened here. The .786/.786/1.272 pattern completed at 24.23. The .618 reversal target is around 19.12. Any extension, not uncommon in butterflies, could take VIX much lower. The 1.272 extension, for instance, would … continue reading →