Everything’s Coming Up Crabs: March 16, 2012


You can go whole days, even weeks without seeing very prominent harmonic patterns (Gartley, Bat, Butterfly, Crab being the most common.)

So, it’s really creepy to see just about every index I chart complete bearish patterns — all at the same time.   I take this as a sign that we’ve reached an important top, though I’m not sure if it’s the end of Minor 2 or a smaller subwave.  In any case, look for a significant downturn as soon as the usual OPEX nonsense has passed.

In no particular order, here you go:


I’ll post more after the close.


Everything’s Coming Up Crabs: March 16, 2012 — 18 Comments

  1. Thanks for the help Pebbles.

    I am as certain as can be that we are either (1) in a large triangle off the February 2011 high that will last all year (prolly an X wave), or (2) we gonna get 5 down to the October 2011 lows (possibly as low as July 2009 pivot area) and this is also potentially an X wave.Nothing else makes sense as they left structural breaks and wave 2 triangles off that October 2011 low to help us.

  2. Interesting.  Thanks!  It seems like the higher it goes up, the further it drops.  
    For Gartley, after point D, the downtown leads to a drop at even lower than pt C.
    If Garltey can retrace point D at .786, while the Crab can retrace at 1.618, it means the Crab can go higher as twice as much as Garley for point D. But the the drop after point D wil be twice as much.

  3. These are all bearish, as they call for a downturn after the last upward (CD) leg.  Bearish patterns, therefore, resemble W's, while bullish patterns resemble M's.  The main differences between Gartleys and Crabs are the Point B's and Point D's.  The Gartley requires a .618 Point B retrace, while Crabs can go up to .886.  And the Gartley point D is at .786, while the Crab is 1.618 or higher (2, 2.24, 2.618, etc.)

  4. PW, are these harmonic patterns, Gartley, Bat, Butterfly, Crab are all bearish paterns?

    You  illustrated Gartley Patterns in your Feb 28th post.   http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2012/02/gartley-patterns-explained-february-28.html 

    However, , the charts you show in Mar 16 post are not Gartley.   As you describe, they are crabs patterns.   So, Gartley and crabs point to the same bearish outcome?

  5. Thanks PW…nice write up as well, but alas, I was merely throwing darts at a board rather than using any stock picking talent.  Let me know if I need to do anything to "claim my prize" once you have the new site up.  Looking forward to it!

  6.  More ideas on contest.  How about simulation trade.
    Simulation trade is the most typical in school.

    Example, if you are given $10,000 fictional money, how would invest and what is the result in a time period, such as a month or 2 months?

    Perhaps you hear Apple can only go up and it is going to $1200 within a year, you spend your $10,000 on Apple stock.

    So, Mar 16th:  (Simulation) purchase 17 shares of Apple at $585.57. Net is $9954.69
          Apr 16th:  What would be the balance of 17 shares of Apple?

    Or you are very conservative, you buy Apple stock with insurance.  You want to hedge your Apple stock with PSQ. (inverse of QQQ- Nasdaq 100)

      Mar 16th:  (Simulation) purchase 10 shares of Apple at $585.57. Net is $5855.7
                      (Simulation) purchase 158 shares of PSQ at $26.1.    Net is $4123.8

       Apr 16th:  What would be the balance of 10 shares of Apple and 158 shares of PSQ?

  7.  This is a good start.  But, yes, many more actual reversals would be nice.  Usually look for .618 of the AD distance, but that's not cast in stone.  Depends on so many other things.

  8. As a chartist, I am sure you are quite excited to see multiple crab patterns finishing at the same time which kind of confirm one another. But I am sure you will be even more excited if/when we see the major reversal off those crab pattern lines, right? 🙂 I know I will. By the way, what will be a possible downside target for these crabs??

  9. If DAX closes up today that will make 8 days in a row. Going back to check the last time this occurred and whether it was a significant top.