ORIGINAL POST 7:45 AM PDT Sorry for the delay in posting this. I’ve had my MacBook Pro hooked up to an external monitor, and every once in a while the video card does a swan dive. Going back to the trusty G4 for now. Anyway, 1344 was my target and here we are. My instruments … continue reading →
It has come to my attention that last night’s post was too obtuse. Apparently, the sarcasm was a little too thick for the message to get through. In an effort to be as clear as possible… Tomorrow is Christmas Eve 2007. If you’ve been following this blog, you know what that means and what to … continue reading →
Anyone who’s read this blog over the past couple of months knows I’m confident we’re following in the footsteps of the 2007 top (and most of the other significant tops since the 1930s.) If you’re new here, take 30 minutes and read through the posts listed here. Lots of euphoria in the markets today. Great … continue reading →
As we embark on the very last upleg of this topping pattern, it’s worth a reminder that we trade in a heavily-leveraged environment. Furthermore, it’s leverage that already doesn’t work at interest rates of 1.5%. What happens if markets decide 5% or 8% is the more appropriate risk-adjusted return? We have a multitude of negative … continue reading →
UPDATE: 11:35 AM PDT Just completed a little inverse H&S; pattern that targets 1341 on the upside. Close enough to 1346 for my liking. UPDATE: 8:50 AM PDT SPX at 1316. The backtest may be done here at the .50 Fib line. There’s a 50-50 chance that we go all the way back to 1310. … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:30 PM PDT We got the bounce I was looking for, but it came later and after more damage then I expected. The ramp job that occurred at Friday’s close was undone in the futures by the time the cash market opened. I expected 1298.60 to hold, as it was key to the most … continue reading →
Friday’s action brought us closer to the apex on the SPX bullish falling wedge (60 minute chart). In addition, there is divergence in the histogram, the stochastic and the RSI vis-a-vis the index. VIX broke out of its bearish falling wedge at the end of the day. The technical indicators are flashing negative — positive … continue reading →
A friend just tipped me to the fact that a certain Elliott Wave outfit (we’ll call them Elliott Wavers Incorporated, or EWI) pronounced yesterday that 2011 and 2007 exhibit a “similar topping pattern.” OMG! I only wish I had had this very valuable information a couple of months ago. Oh, wait, I did. When I … continue reading →
A friend just tipped me to the fact that Elliott Wave International pronounced yesterday that 2011 and 2007 exhibit a “similar topping pattern.” OH! MY! GOSH! I only wish I had had this very valuable information when I posted back on May 31. Oh, wait, I did. When I made the exact same observation. But … continue reading →
UPDATE: 11:45 AM PDT Just a quick recap of where we are: Fairly neutral at the moment, other than some longer term bearish bets I established last week. Took profits yesterday on most of my shorts, and actually bought a few SPY calls this morning, nothing big. We have to get OPEX out of the … continue reading →