Margin debt in April reached $320 billion, the highest level seen since February 2008, one of the most unfortunate cases of BTFD in recent memory. Margin debt topped $381.4 billion in July 2007, just before the market peaked in October. The S&P; 500 plunged 58% over the next 17 months. Source: NYXdata.com Why the $5 … continue reading →
Short term US Government credit default swaps have more than tripled since April. If this were solely the result of debt ceiling debate, I wouldn’t be so worried. http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/05/25/us-short-term-cds-spreads-sharply-wider/ I suspect it has more to do with the fact that US debt is forecast to exceed 155% of GDP by 2035 (see the report from … continue reading →
“BOSTON (MarketWatch) — It‘s cost $600 billion of your money. And it was supposed to rescue the economy. But has Ben Bernanke’s huge financial stimulus package, known as “Quantitative Easing 2,” actually worked as planned? … Turns out the program has created maybe 700,000 full-time jobs — at a cost of around $850,000 each. House … continue reading →
Tuesday’s declines had an impact on the harmonic picture, but not exactly how I expected. The large bullish Gartley that has been forming since 4/18 was completed at the lows (* on the chart). The smaller 5/17 – 5/22 bullish Gartley targeting 1352 failed due to the extension of the CD leg; but, thanks to … continue reading →
Long term, financials have a dim future (XLF will be the sector wearing a name tag when it grows up.) Back on May 3, I noticed XLF was running into heavy resistance at 16.40 and started looking for a drop to the mid-15s. XLF fell to 15.67 by the 17th, a decent 4 1/2% return … continue reading →
Putting together the harmonics with important support and resistance levels, I’m looking for the Apr 20 gap to be filled, then a strong rebound, reaching the 1350 area in the next few days. I still have a target of 1380 as the end of P[2], but am looking at the possibility of a truncated fifth … continue reading →
This past Friday morning, with SPX down about 9 1/2, I made a crazy call based on some indicators I’ve been watching [more later tonight or tomorrow.] They said the market would not only stop falling, but would completely reverse itself and open up, leaving a nice bullish hammer going into the weekend and thus, … continue reading →
John Dvorak writes a great piece on the LinkedIn IPO. Could this be yet another sign of the top? … continue reading →
In a couple of 5/3 posts [Short the Banks and Follow Up on Financials] I suggested XLF — then at 16.40 — was due for a drop to the mid-15s. It hit 15.67 on the 17th and has been in a what I think is a rally in a ongoing bear market for financials. Those … continue reading →
If a pattern I’m studying plays out, the SPX should reverse its (currently) 9 1/2 point drop and close positive on the day, leaving a big, fat bullish hammer candle going into the weekend. Will be working on it throughout the day… more later. UPDATE at 11:45am SPX fell as low as 1330.67 and appears … continue reading →