Charts I’m Watching: June 8, 2012


It’s tempting to consider this morning’s drop to 1307.77 “close enough” to our 1303.47 target, but I’m not completely convinced.  We have a nice buffer in, having shorted at 1325 yesterday [see: Moment of Truth], but the short-term RSI charts haven’t given a clear signal yet.

Although we might leave some profits on the table, I’d like to see a clear break out before jumping back in on the long side.

It could happen any minute, or we could slide back down from the upper bound of this channel.  I’ll post more as soon as it’s clear.

UPDATE:  12:00

SPX appears to have broken out of the 5 and 15 minute channels, so I think it’s time to take profits on the shorts here at 1317 and try for a few points to the upside, with an intraday target of the .786 at 1324.50 or the .886 at 1326.62.

I’m still looking for 1303.47 before turning higher, but I’m nervous about being short going into the weekend. I’m also nervous about being long going into the weekend!   I’ll see how things look as we get closer to the close, and maybe go to cash if the picture isn’t any clearer.

UPDATE:  3:00

That’s three stabs at the .786, and still failing to push through.  Meanwhile,  RUT, NYA and even NDX  are not following suit out of the daily RSI channel.  This feels like divergence on the part of SPX, so I’m going to take long profits here at 1324 and stay in cash into the weekend — unless something big happens in the final hour.

UPDATE:  3:30 PM

The other charts — no channel break here.

VIX, in the meantime, has potentially started that new downward sloping channel we talked about earlier in the week.  But, it looks like it’s getting ahead of itself — declining too far too fast.

I’ll post more after the close.

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