He’s calling this a “technology VC bubble,” where new venture-capital money is paying off old money almost akin to, in his own words, “a Ponzi scheme” or “an old chain letter.” He also opines on diversification (for idiots), his latest stock investment (SPY puts) and governmental effectiveness. See the video here. … continue reading →
UPDATE: 3:15 PM The dollar decline seems to have run out of steam. DX has run into support from the fan line we’ve been watching (red dashed line), and now has the opportunity to follow a rising TL back towards the falling wedge boundary. UPDATE: 2:10 PM Between the rising wedge, multiple bearish harmonics patterns, … continue reading →
UPDATE: 12:40 PM I’ve been undecided about one aspect of the 2007=2001 pattern for most of the past week. The price drop we’ve experienced is obviously much greater in percentage terms than in 2007. Yet, the pattern of chop we’ve seen is exactly the same. Throw in the harmonics patterns I discuss below, and I … continue reading →
SPX rallied nicely off the bullish Gartley completed yesterday. For anyone not convinced that harmonics work, take a look at where it reversed — .22 from the D point indicated by a Gartley pattern at the .786 Fibonacci level. Like many, I have been trying to make sense of the structure of the market over … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:50 PM So far, so good on GC. UPDATE: 12:00 PM SPX very quiet after falling off 45 points in the opening hours. Looks like it’s trying to get the c leg of wave 4 going. GC has had what looks like a blow-off morning. It looked like it was going to complete a … continue reading →
UPDATE: EOD GC climbed 62 points to 1782.50 today, completing a bearish butterfly pattern and then establishing an intra-day double top. Post the Fed announcment (with no QE) it fell 56 to 1717 before closing up 26. It was an impressive reversal that reinforces the notion that investors were counting on QE to fuel the … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:10 PM EDT QE3 is so far looking more like QE1.9. A promise to keep rates at current levels through mid-2013 is net positive for stocks, as it implies a stable interest rate environment — thus, theoretically mitigating the risk of higher rates. Of course, the Fed has no such power. If rates get … continue reading →
I know this market seems unbelievable, but be careful about calling the bottom unless some of the RSI charts are able to break their TLs. Here’s the 5 minute chart: And, the 60 minute: Note every time the market tries to turn, the RSI is turned back by its trend line. I, for one, won’t … continue reading →
I know, strange title. I was going to go with “A Little Self-Doubt Can Knock the Snot Out of Your Portfolio,” but that seemed a bit excessive. Just came across this chart from June 23 [Deja Vu, All Over Again]. I had recently discovered fan lines, and was pretty excited about the prospects. Combining fan … continue reading →
LATER Okay, so post-S&P; downgrade… ignore everything I wrote today. It doesn’t matter anymore. I think. Was this priced into the market? Question du jour, possibly l’année. My gut says it was. I think most institutions that are required to divest themselves of anything less than AAA will do so over time, if at all. … continue reading →