UPDATE: 6:15 PM Finally, what feels like a little clarity… Last Thursday, we retraced to the .618 Fibonacci of the 1292 to 1215 dip — meaning, we recouped 61.8% of the drop from the 1292 high on 10/27 to the 1215 low on 11/1. For newbies, these events are significant, as they are the first … continue reading →
UPDATE: 12:45 PM $5 Billion in POMO later, there’s an effort being made to turn the rising wedge break into a rising channel. It could happen, so stay alert for a break through the red channel line (bottom.) But, I still think the larger channel off the 1074 bottom will call the shots for now. … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:00 PM A close up of the channel, showing a likely reversal a the midline — which is also the .382 as mentioned below. Note the possible setup for a H&S; pattern (pink dashed neckline @ 1213) with potential to 1140. Here’s a closeup. UPDATE: 11:45 AM The dollar, solidly back in its channel, … continue reading →
UPDATE: 7:00 PM I think it’s safe to say DX and EUR are right back in their channels. There’s a very long ways to go from here. UPDATE: 11:00 AM The headline could read something like: Politicians Threaten to Resign over Prime Minister’s Appalling Plan to Allow People to Vote If that sounds like … continue reading →
UPDATE: 4:00 PM Heading off for the weekend and probably won’t get to post. One last thought… in looking at the rising wedge we’re in, the apex seems to be around 1340-1350. Wedges can and do expand (as this one has, many times). But, breakouts typically occur around the .66 mark, which in this case … continue reading →
UPDATE: 7:30 PM Any CDS experts out there? If the Greece “haircut” isn’t deemed a default, then it calls into question the value of credit default swaps. Depending on who you ask and how you measure them, there are $2.5 – 600 trillion of these (possibly worthless) things floating around — some presumably on the … continue reading →
UPDATE: 3:40 PM I should add that, as long as this little Crab stops anywhere shy of 1257, we will have completed 3 of 4 legs of a Gartley pattern (purple). The .618 reversal occurred at this morning’s 1231 low, and the .786 target would be 1210 — the original target from the little H&S; … continue reading →
Again, ignore the headlines. The numbers that really matters are ytd sales (without a seasonal adjustment) and median sales price. Here, without the glitzy graphics or Census Dept spin, is the unvarnished truth. US Northeast Midwest South West 2011 v 2010 ytd -7.9% -29.7% -9.7% -4.1% -6.1%percent change inunits sold Median price: … continue reading →
UPDATE: 4:30 PM Good, strong close at low for the day. Guess I’m not the only one looking for disappointing news from Brussels. Here’s a peek at the DX daily chart. Note the .618 Fib intersecting with the SMA 200 and a reversal candle for the day. And, just for grins, here’s a pattern that … continue reading →
In looking at the 2011 v 2008 analog, it’s obvious we’ve advanced at a much faster pace these past two weeks than the analog would suggest. From a price standpoint, we’ve very nearly reached our wave 2 target a good month or more early. We can debate the causes — everything from “animal spirits” to … continue reading →