Fed Chair Powell will deliver his much anticipated speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium this morning. Investors will be hanging on every word, trying to get a handle on what to expect for interest rates for the remainder of the year. Opinions are all over the map as to what the Fed will do and what the Fed should do.

FWIW, we are of the opinion that the impact of tariffs has yet to be fully felt and that inflation remains a bigger threat than an economic slowdown. The latest CPI, PPI and PCE data all show things moving in the wrong direction. Common sense dictates that there’s more to come.

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Futures are off moderately after yesterday’s volatile session that saw stocks slide over 1% at one point. All eyes remain fixed on Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole tomorrow, especially as Trump amps up his efforts to take control of the Fed.

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After a week of defending the July highs, equities tumbled a bit yesterday. SPX tested 6400 as well as its SMA10. Futures are slightly lower this morning as traders position for  Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow, For those wishing they had a preview, Fed minutes will be released this afternoon.

Although the uptrend is still technically intact, we’re seeing signs of growing unrest among equity investors, particularly among Fed watchers worried about an FOMC disappointment in September.

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Futures are slightly lower as stocks continue consolidating.

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Futures are slightly lower ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium where Chair Powell is expected to shed more light on the Fed’s September decision.

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Futures are up slightly, buoyed by in-line retail sales and much stronger than expected Empire State Manufacturing.  Retail sales increased 0.5% MoM and 3.9% YoY, both in line. Ex-auto, sales rose 0.3%. Remember that retail sales are not adjusted for inflation, so the inflation adjusted print was considerably lower.

Speaking of inflation, import prices rose 0.4% versus expectations of flat. Export prices were negligibly higher at 0.1%. U Mich sentiment is due out at 10am ET.

Empire State Manufacturing came in at 11.9, much higher than 1.8 expectations. All in all, this morning’s data doesn’t help support the September rate cut scenario.

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PPI soared by the most in three years, throwing cold water on speculation that the Fed could cut rates next month. The index jumped 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY – up from 2.3% in June. Core PPI rose 0.6%, the biggest increase in over three years. Core rose 2.8% YoY versus 2.3% in June.

Not surprisingly, futures tanked on the print as hopes of a rate cut in September are finally having to cope with the effects of Trump’s tariff policy.

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Equities pushed to new highs by the close yesterday, aided by another 90-day reprieve on China’s tariffs and, of course, a 10%+ smackdown in VIX.

I have to catch a plane, so will post more later today. In the meantime, our upside targets remain unchanged.

Following the recent takeover of BLS data by the Oval Office, we’re less trusting than ever of headline CPI. But, for what it’s worth, the print came in on target: +0.2% MoM and a repeat of June’s 2.7% YoY. Core CPI ticked higher to 3.1% versus 2.9% prior and 3.0% expected.

The algos believe what they’re told, so futures popped up to the .886 Fibonacci retracement on the “news.” Just to be on the safe side, Trump postponed China tariffs by another 90 days.

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Futures are essentially flat ahead of the open as traders await important inflation data and digest the latest wrinkle in trade: the 15% of sales that NVDA and AMD will pay the US government in order to sell AI chips to China.

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