PPI soared by the most in three years, throwing cold water on speculation that the Fed could cut rates next month. The index jumped 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY – up from 2.3% in June. Core PPI rose 0.6%, the biggest increase in over three years. Core rose 2.8% YoY versus 2.3% in June.

Not surprisingly, futures tanked on the print as hopes of a rate cut in September are finally having to cope with the effects of Trump’s tariff policy.

continued for members…

The uptrend remains in place, though there’s a high likelihood that we’ll get a retrenchment that causes a bearish 10/20 cross in SPX – one that also recognizes the negative divergence on RSI.

ES, on the other hand, is still some distance away from its next higher Fib target.

Note that SPX’s SMA200 is emerging from the large falling white channel, offering a logical downside target if the Fed turns more hawkish in the next several weeks. Not a lot of movement in currencies, though rates slipped a bit higher. Stay tuned…