Charts I’m Watching: Aug 18, 2025

Futures are slightly lower ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium where Chair Powell is expected to shed more light on the Fed’s September decision.

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I think there’s a very good chance that investors are disappointed since the latest inflation related data has come in hot. Whereas they were widely expecting a 50 bps cut, the odds favor a 25 bps cut or no cut at all.  Those two outcomes would almost certainly undo most of equities’ gains since the breakout.