Fed Chair Powell will deliver his much anticipated speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium this morning. Investors will be hanging on every word, trying to get a handle on what to expect for interest rates for the remainder of the year. Opinions are all over the map as to what the Fed will do and what the Fed should do.

FWIW, we are of the opinion that the impact of tariffs has yet to be fully felt and that inflation remains a bigger threat than an economic slowdown. The latest CPI, PPI and PCE data all show things moving in the wrong direction. Common sense dictates that there’s more to come.

continued for members…

Futures are up moderately based largely on VIX’s rejection at its SMA50 for the third day in a row.

The dollar is slightly higher this morning, but currency markets remain muted.

Oil and gas continue to trickle higher, hinting at a minor breakout.

The 10Y is responding in kind, creeping up toward its SMA200. If Powell leans hawkish this morning, it’s likely to test the yellow TL just above the SMA200, say 4.42-4.46%.

continuing…