Futures are essentially flat in advance of today’s FOMC minutes.

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Once again, the arsonist sprinkled a little water on the fire and is looking for a reward. After sending markets into another freefall last week with the imposition of 50% tariffs on the EU, Trump “rescued” them by delaying the start date.

As expected, SPX backtested its SMA200. ES is back above its. All is good, until the next calamity strikes.

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Futures took a nosedive this morning when Trump tweeted in quick succession that the EU trade talks were going nowhere and that Apple must move manufacturing to the US. The penalty for not bending to his will in each case is a 50% tariff.

Markets are still adjusting to our new mob boss system of government.

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The 10Y broke out again yesterday, sending and S&P 500 100 points lower on the day. The House’s budget bill passage, which promises to sharply hike the deficit/debt while cutting medicare and medicaid, won’t help.

The next big test for bears will be SPX 5767, the 200-day moving average.

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Futures are off about 0.50% as we lead up to the open.

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Futures are slightly lower as we approach the open.

FWIW, Jamie Dimon is still talking overpriced equities and stagflation, stating that the risks are essentially double what the market thinks.

Meanwhile, as Trump’s trade war continues, non-US investors are understandably nervous about America’s shaky finances in light of Republicans spending megabill that could add $3.3 trillion to the already ballooning deficit.

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Whether it was Moody’s debt downgrade, Trump’s insane rants, or his picking a fight with corporates such WMT and AAPL, this was not a great weekend for the US. Any way you look at it, America was downgraded and markets are hinting at a “sell America” bias.

Futures are off sharply with the 10Y back above 4.50% and the 30Y back above 5.0%.

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Housing starts rose a measly 1.6% to 1.36M, but it was single family permits that really disappointed in April, coming in at 1.41M versus 1.45M expected and 1.48 prior. The slump is a reflection of falling builder sentiment due to higher Trump tariffs, a shrinking labor supply amide his crackdown on immigration, and persistently high mortgage interest rates.

Another economic data point which is usually ignored came in much higher than expected. Import prices rose 0.4% versus 0.1% for the month. We should see an even higher print next month when the front loading effect falls away.

Futures have come down off their earlier highs, but are still up slightly ahead of the open.

Keep an eye on University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment due out at 10am. It is nearing all-time lows, and is one of the few important economic data points that can’t be influenced by politicians.

A spate of studies has shown that the average American family is having a very tough time with its finances.

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Following a strong March where consumers ramped up purchases in advance of tariff-induced price hikes, retail sales plunged in April to 0.1%, well below expectations of 0.4%. Combined with UNH’s 10%+ downdraft following news of a criminal probe, futures are off moderately this morning.

Even Walmart is warning of a weakening consumer and risks posed by prices elevated by Trump’s tariffs.

“The higher tariffs will result in higher prices,” CEO Doug McMillon.

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When asked why he robbed banks, bank robber Willie Sutton is reported to have replied “Because that’s where the money is.” This week, we’ve seen a spectacular bout of deal making and gift giving in Saudi Arabia that would make Mr. Sutton blush.

Futures are up modestly as ES tags its .786 Fibonacci retracement.

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