It seems that China has finally realized the leverage they possess: Trump’s fear of market corrections. There is nothing that matters more to him, as his personal wealth and public perception are intrinsically tied to the DJIA.
Perhaps this realization is the rationale behind China’s recent trade counterattack. Futures are not amused, retracing much of yesterday’s kneejerk reaction to Trump’s TACO moment over the weekend.
continued for members… (more…)
Here we go again. Trump’s latest threat to impose 130% tariffs on China tanked the S&P 500 by over 200 points – the biggest decline since “liberation day.” ES hit our 6545 target almost two weeks earlier than forecast.
It came as no surprise, then, that he had a change of heart over the weekend.
“Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” President Xi Jinping “doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”
Got that? The US wants to help China. Trump’s comments had nothing to do with the stock market’s demise. Or TACOs. Definitely not TACOs.
continued for members…
Futures are flat after another minor selloff which brought ES back to trend.
continued for members… (more…)
Jamie Dimon has joined David Solomon, Ray Dalio, Jeremy Grantham, Michael Wilson, and the Bank of England in warning of a significant correction in the months ahead. Makes you wonder what we’ll hear from Jay Powell later today…
continued for members… (more…)
In the absence of economic data, even as suspect as it’s been these past few months, today’s release of FOMC minutes takes on added importance.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England joined the chorus of those who have proclaimed the equity markets overpriced.
continued for members… (more…)
Futures are up marginally ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC minutes.
continued for members… (more…)
There’s no jobs data today – legitimate or otherwise. So, investors and Fed watchers are left to reflct on the trend that was already arguing against the US economy being the “envy of the world.”
Futures are flat ahead of the open.
continued for members… (more…)
While the parties retreat to their corners and refine their talking points, markets got off to a very strong start in Q4. At some point, someone will pay a political price for shutting down the government. But, both parties are betting they’ll prevail. And, for now, the algos are making hay.
Indices are happy to focus on AI and semis. And, past shutdowns have been non-events from an investment standpoint. Our analysis of shutdowns over the past 25 years:
continued for members… (more…)
The federal government shut down last night, furloughing hundreds of thousands of employees and shuttering hundreds of programs and services.
Futures were off sharply overnight but have since recovered much of their losses.
continued for members… (more…)
