Coronavirus – Why the Complacency?

I’ve done some calculations on the spread of the coronavirus in Italy, which has presumably learned a thing or two from China’s experience but suggests a path for other countries just now coming to terms with their own exposure.

Granted, Italy’s quarantine and aggressive treatment might put a dent in the exponential rate at which it’s expanding. But, it’s not a pretty picture.

Here’s where things are through Mar 4 with an exponential growth rate in cases I’ve calculated at f(t)=2.423e0.5013t (t = the number of days since Day 1 on Feb 20.) The growth rate in deaths as of today is f(t)=0.4575e0.3909t .

Cases as of 1800 CET today are at 2,706 and deaths are at 109.

Obviously, exponential formulae are very much subject to change. At this rate March 11 would see 90,428 cases and 1,681 deaths. March 16 would mean 1,108,819 cases and 11,866 deaths. Let’s pray they get a handle on things very soon.


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