Today is a very important day in the markets. The signals that prompted us to short on several days ago are still intact, and more have joined their ranks – the most notable being the breakdown in the 10Y flag pattern. ES snuck down and tagged our SMA200 target overnight. To put things simply: If … continue reading →
Tag Archives: Coronavirus
It’s surreal, watching our “leaders” debate how many deaths are acceptable and whether workers and children should be sent back into harm’s way. Only a few weeks ago, we all agreed upon the need to flatten the pandemic’s curve so we could prevent a surge from overwhelming our medical system. Now, the debate is about … continue reading →
Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE: October 20, 2020 Herd Immunity: Doing the Math In June, we observed that the US had embarked on a herd immunity approach to dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. With little public discussion or debate, the US has embarked on a herd immunity … continue reading →
I’ve done some calculations on the spread of the coronavirus in Italy, which has presumably learned a thing or two from China’s experience but suggests a path for other countries just now coming to terms with their own exposure. Granted, Italy’s quarantine and aggressive treatment might put a dent in the exponential rate at which … continue reading →
In a stunning demonstration of the extent to which algos control the market, ES soared 56.50 points after the World Health Organization declared the Wuhan coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern. While it’s true the press conference felt more like a China tourism promo, the declaration in no way reduced the risk the … continue reading →