COVID-19: What to Expect

This article was originally posted March 13 and will be updated on a regular basis.  Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE:  April 3, 2020 Out of curiosity, I took a look at mortality rate trends in a few other countries. While some are clearly better than others, every … continue reading →

Coronavirus – Why the Complacency?

I’ve done some calculations on the spread of the coronavirus in Italy, which has presumably learned a thing or two from China’s experience but suggests a path for other countries just now coming to terms with their own exposure. Granted, Italy’s quarantine and aggressive treatment might put a dent in the exponential rate at which … continue reading →

Wuhan Coronavirus: Still Here

In a stunning demonstration of the extent to which algos control the market, ES soared 56.50 points after the World Health Organization declared the Wuhan coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern. While it’s true the press conference felt more like a China tourism promo, the declaration in no way reduced the risk the … continue reading →