COVID-19: What to Expect

Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE:  January 18, 2021 It has been almost a year since our first post on the coronavirus [see: More Where That Came From.]  We tried to stay away from politics. But, it was often very difficult – such as when this Feb 25 … continue reading →

We’re All Canaries

It’s surreal, watching our “leaders” debate how many deaths are acceptable and whether workers and children should be sent back into harm’s way.  Only a few weeks ago, we all agreed upon the need to flatten the pandemic’s curve so we could prevent a surge from overwhelming our medical system. Now, the debate is about … continue reading →

Coronavirus – Why the Complacency?

I’ve done some calculations on the spread of the coronavirus in Italy, which has presumably learned a thing or two from China’s experience but suggests a path for other countries just now coming to terms with their own exposure. Granted, Italy’s quarantine and aggressive treatment might put a dent in the exponential rate at which … continue reading →

Wuhan Coronavirus: Still Here

In a stunning demonstration of the extent to which algos control the market, ES soared 56.50 points after the World Health Organization declared the Wuhan coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern. While it’s true the press conference felt more like a China tourism promo, the declaration in no way reduced the risk the … continue reading →