Frontrunning the Fed

Ultra low interest rates don’t do much for traditional banking earnings, but they’re pretty fantastic for highly leveraged banks such as Goldman that are only too happy to front run the tsunami of Fed liquidity injections. Between GS and more positive vaccine news (Moderna) the futures have pushed to higher highs, settling the question as … continue reading →

We’re All Canaries

It’s surreal, watching our “leaders” debate how many deaths are acceptable and whether workers and children should be sent back into harm’s way.  Only a few weeks ago, we all agreed upon the need to flatten the pandemic’s curve so we could prevent a surge from overwhelming our medical system. Now, the debate is about … continue reading →

COVID-19: What to Expect

Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE: October 20, 2020 Herd Immunity: Doing the Math In June, we observed that the US had embarked on a herd immunity approach to dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. With little public discussion or debate, the US has embarked on a herd immunity … continue reading →

Coronavirus – Why the Complacency?

I’ve done some calculations on the spread of the coronavirus in Italy, which has presumably learned a thing or two from China’s experience but suggests a path for other countries just now coming to terms with their own exposure. Granted, Italy’s quarantine and aggressive treatment might put a dent in the exponential rate at which … continue reading →