I have no inside information, no best friend in the Fed, no hotline to Cramer. I’m as surprised as anyone that we keep closing within a few pennies of our forecast.
I mean, I believe in harmonics and chart patterns and technical analysis — overlayed with common sense. And, I (usually) know when to bail on a losing position. But, this is just plain creepy.
Today marked our first quarter-end, and we’re up almost 35% on a cash basis based on forecast highs and lows that I’ve posted. Today was icing on the cake, as we landed within inches of our 1326.19 target.
Thanks to all of you who’ve joined over the past three months. I appreciate the faith you’ve shown in joining up, and will continue to do my best to offer the best information I can.
As always, the big question after a day like today is “what’s next?”
continued…
SPX very nearly reached the other side of the channel I drew. Just eyeballing it, there’s at most a couple of points it could drop before the channel would need to be redrawn.
We’ve retraced .382 of the A-B rise from 1266 to 1363, a perfectly acceptable Point C. We’ve also very nearly backtested the upper bound of the channel that brought us down from 1415.
The Dow is even more clear cut. There’s nearly a .382/.786 tag on the daily chart…
…and, the daily RSI made a nice back test of its channel.
More in the morning.
Comments
5 responses to “The Answer is No”
Hello PW, a comment on your DX chart in the prior post. From that chart, it indicates DX would go as low as 79.25 in early July (current DX is 82.23) It seems like DX should mover higher.
Can you explain how DX would go lower when (1) no QE for now and USD is stronger (2) Euro is not fixed. Attention is shifted from Greece to Spain. Euro should decline. (3) If ECB prints, Euro value would go lower. (in other words, whether ECB prints or not, Euro goes lower).
I expect stocks to have a very nice little run over the next several weeks, meaning DX should show some weakness. On Jan 13, DX began a 3.6-pt slide from 82.05 to 78.43 on Feb 9. SPX rose 77 points over the same period.
I’m looking for DX to get down to around 79 by July opex — a 3.4 pt decline. A 70-80 pt increase in stocks would put SPX around 1390-1400.
From there, though, I expect a strong increase in DX as stocks sell off. I can only speculate on what fundamental news or rumor might rally stocks, but believe the chart picture is ST bullish.
I’ll update the DX chart later, but we’re most of the way through the H&S pattern I charted two weeks ago: https://pebblewriter.com/the-dollar-currents-see/
Neely is pointing to a sub-1290 number with possible test of 1266 with another bounce to follow. Any harmonics mesh up with that forecast?
Meant Nenner, sorry.
thanks for all you do!!! I’m a pretty good chartist and it’s a good to see most of the time we are on the same page, but those times I have to question what I see and not what I feel, your analysis makes me make that hard decision that much easier. Great job bud!!!