Intra-day: Jun 16, 2011

UPDATE 12:35 PDT The Gartley busted as the VIX took off for the moon.  Busted Gartley’s often become butterflies, which is exactly what happened here.  The .786/.786/1.272 pattern completed at 24.23.  The .618 reversal target is around 19.12.  Any extension, not uncommon in butterflies, could take VIX much lower. The 1.272 extension, for instance, would … continue reading →

You’ve Got a Fan in Me

Last week I proposed a methodology for defining market tops in Channel Surfing and in the follow-up, Update: Channel Surfing.  I described it like this:…characterized by a multi-month pattern within a rising market that has at least two significant touches (of the index or its Bollinger Band) of at least 1.5 standard deviations on the … continue reading →

Why I Love Harmonics

UPDATE:  June 17, 2011 The pattern indicated an upside to 97.42, which would be a possible turning point.  TLT closed yesterday at 97.38 and was as low as 96.70 this morning.  Let’s keep an eye on this one, if for no other reason than as an indicator. ORIGINAL POST:  June 15, 2011 Posted yesterday midday, … continue reading →

Still Playing the Bounce

I know… another round of horrid economic news, escalating unrest in Greece, etc., etc… Yes, the economy is still melting down.  No, there’s nothing we can do about it.   There’s still no miracle cure, no silver bullet and no pain-free long-term solution.  But, that doesn’t mean they won’t try. The two leading options right … continue reading →


If the SPX slide stops around here (ideally 1263), we would have a butterfly pattern (since the open, visible on the 5 minute) nestled inside another butterfly (also on 5 minute, since Friday’s low) nestled inside a crab (since 4/18 on the daily), nestled inside yet another crab (since 3/16 on daily.)  Think of them … continue reading →

Channel Surfing

Just a quick update on yesterday’s post [Deja Vu].  Today was b’tugly from the get go, with the SPX down below 1270 at its worst.  Despite all that, the channel remains intact. Not content to see that something works without understanding how, I went back to the 2000 and 2007 tops.  Made a fascinating discovery.  … continue reading →

Deja Vu?

I’ve been looking at the tops in 2000 and 2007, trying to draw comparisons.  There are similarities in the way the market, once it drops below its long-term support (bottom of a rising wedge), looks like it’s in for a free fall. The 2000, 2007 and 2011 TopsWeekly But, it eventually finds new support in … continue reading →