A New Analog: Mar 27, 2015

Part I of a two-part post.  Continued in Part II HERE.

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SPX held our initial downside target of 2048.26 yesterday.  But, as we detailed in the members’ section of The Middle East Heats Up, the trend should continue lower.   CL helped overnight by backing off the .786 Fib line as well as the purple channel midline.2015-03-27-CL 60 0600And, USDJPY, while it rebounded strongly off an important channel bottom, isn’t done with its decline.

But, our most important charting yesterday involved moving averages.  Several were tagged yesterday, which led me to discover an analog that, should it play out in the coming days, could lead to some significant downside.

It was the discovery of an analog that allowed me to accurately forecast the 22% correction between July and October 2011 to the very day and dollar [see: Why do Analogs Work?]  So, analogs are always interesting to me.

First, both SPX and ES closed below their 100-day moving averages (SMA100.)

2015-03-27-ES daily 0621And, USDJPY tagged its SMA100 for the first time in over seven months.

2015-03-27-USDJPY daily 0621Which led me to discover some very interesting coincidences.  As long-time readers know, I don’t believe in coincidences.

continued for members…


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