With the Greek vote coming back a resounding “no,” the burden is on The Powers That Be to prove to the rest of the financial world that a Grexit is a non-event.  And, that’s exactly the way the “markets” are shaking out thus far.

Thursday, SPX reached our bounce target from last Monday [see: All That Matters]…

…the charts suggest that the bounce could easily reach 2072 (the red channel midline) or, with a little more effort, 2081 (a backtest of the broken purple channel bottom.)

…and, even managed to close below Thursday’s short call [see: Greece Fixed Yet Again] at 2081.51.

SPX just tagged the purple target, backtesting the purple channel at 2081.51. I’d look to be short here with reasonably tight stops to protect against headline risk from “you know who.”

The S&P futures were permitted to drop to the SMA200 in the opening minutes of Sunday’s trading — nailing our downside target from last week. Note the gap has almost been closed already.
Likewise, the currency pairs all dropped to a fairly sturdy support point and promptly rebounded.

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I’ve toyed around for the past few months with the idea of tracking the effectiveness of our forecasts.  Since we started offering memberships again this week [AVAILABLE HERE*], it seems the logical thing to do.  Folks want to know what they’re buying.

For those who don’t know, I stopped offering memberships in 2013 when I took time off to start and manage a hedge fund.  It didn’t work out as well as I had hoped.  I’m really, really good at forecasting [see: 2012-2013 Results] — not so much at trading.

For one thing, it had been a while since I had managed a portfolio of other people’s money.  It was harder than I expected, especially since most of my investors were friends and family.  And, though I had some solid service partners, I was routinely working 70-80 hour weeks trying to keep up with the paperwork.

There were other issues, too, such as the “markets” evolving from occasionally to constantly manipulated — by everyone from central banks and their proxies to predatory high-frequency traders.  It has taken a while to learn how to anticipate their actions.  But, the past six months have proven to me that it can be done.

The bottom line is I enjoy analysis more than I enjoy trading. Puzzling things out, finding patterns, discerning the hidden mechanisms at work — these things are a lot of fun for me.

When I stopped taking on memberships, the site was attracting about 2,000 investors daily. Members were paying up to $1,800 annually.  My hope is that enough former members — as well as some new ones — will return to the fold that I can make the site the entire focus of my professional life.

While I’ll no doubt take on a few institutional clients, I’m not keen on going back to work for one of those Wall Street firms that has, in my opinion, so badly screwed up the financial markets.

To active investors: in the spirit of making calls more obvious and easily verifiable, I’ll resume using the blue boxes to highlight future forecasts. For newcomers, they look like the one below (from one of our better shorts on September 14, 2012):

I will tweet a notice of each position change (not the actual forecast, but a notice to check the site.) So, if you haven’t signed up to follow @pebblewriter yet, it would be a good idea to do so.  It will give active traders a chance to get the information fairly quickly.  I’ll also look into a texting service for those who are interested.

For buy and hold types, I’ll use the Current Forecast page [CLICK HERE] to keep you up to speed on larger, longer-term trends.  I’ll also tweet and email notices when things change.

A few technical notes about how results are calculated…

1. These are theoretical, not actual, trading results that assume the S&P 500 index (SPX) is bought or shorted based on signals generated by my research.
2. This data includes the price at which I made the initial call, the forecast price(s) and the results.  Prices are believed, but not guaranteed, to be accurate.
3. Assumes no leverage (100% long, 100% short or 100% cash) and no dividends.
4. Any gain/loss is limited to no more than the forecast price; e.g., if I forecast a rally from 2050 to 2060, but it runs up to 2065, I’ll only take credit for the 10 points up to 2060.  The only exception is when I post an amendment to the original forecast.
5. I recommend using reasonable stops and being very cautious about open positions overnight or over weekends.  What’s a reasonable stop for one investor might not be reasonable for another.  But, we’ll assume a 1% stop loss from “trade” inception.
6. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.  See Disclosures and Use Agreement for important information.

It’ll take a while to go back and identify each long/short call and tally the results. I’ll work backwards until all six months of 2015 are posted.  With that out of the way, here are the June 2015 results:

* We’ve had so many requests for this data since announcing the availability of memberships that we’re extending the discounted pricing through Saturday, July 4.  For more info, CLICK HERE.

For the first time since 2013, pebblewriter.com is once again offering memberships.  To kick things off properly, we’re discounting quarterly, semi-annual and annual subscriptions (up to 33% off) through the end of today.  Details are available HERE.

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Congratulations to the 223,000 bartenders, waiters and retail clerks who found employment in June.  To the 640,000 Americans who gave up looking for work or whose unemployment benefits just ran out — no doubt you’re heading out to celebrate how your demise helped lower the official unemployment rate to 5.3%.

You’re part of an elite club — only 93.6 million of you — whose patriotic sacrifice will be duly noted by the Fed the next time they decline to raise interest rates in an effort to keep the “market” on the rise for more fortunate Americans.  Happy 4th of July, indeed.   From Zerohedge:

On to that “market.”  Yesterday, SPX nailed our bounce target offered on Monday, topping out at 2082.78.  From Monday’s post All That Matters:

…the charts suggest that the bounce could easily reach 2072 (the red channel midline) or, with a little more effort, 2081 (a backtest of the broken purple channel bottom.)

The futures are showing small gains this morning.  But USDJPY reversed as we expected yesterday.  It’ll be an uphill climb unless USDJPY breaks out.  And, our thesis remains that such a breakout is unlikely just yet.

The global financial markets feed on the yen carry trade.  And, the BOJ — under pressure like all central banks for the unacknowledged inflation they’re generating — won’t further devalue the yen until they’re in panic mode.  I doubt if last week’s 4% blip in the Nikkei 225 was enough to panic them.

Yesterday’s targets remain in place.

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For the first time since 2013, pebblewriter.com is again offering longer-term memberships.  Just to kick things off, we’ve discounted the rates for the next 24 hours or the first 25 members, whichever comes first.  Details available HERE.

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If you’re feeling a bit of whiplash, it might be because this is the eleventy-billionth time the Greek crisis has been deemed fixed.  The second of Monday’s targets looks likely to be achieved on the opening this morning.

From the members section in Monday’s post [see:  All That Matters]:

…the charts suggest that the bounce could easily reach 2072 (the red channel midline) or, with a little more effort, 2081 (a backtest of the broken purple channel bottom.)

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Last December we noted that XLF, like many indices, had regained a trend line which it had lost.  It was the third time in a row for the ETF that focuses on banks and insurance companies — which kinda made sense.  As we wrote then:

I suppose it’s to be expected, as no sector has benefited from the Fed’s largesse so greatly as have financials.

It would all be amusing were it not for the fact that XLF just closed below a major TL again.

Will it bounce right back as though nothing happened, or will this plunge leave a mark?

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Only one chart worth showing at this juncture.  The daily chart shows NKD breaking the rising red channel from October 2014 just yesterday.

Recall that was the month when Bullard (on the 15th) and Kuroda (on the 31st) teamed up to push stocks through heavy resistance. In NKD’s case, it was able to slice through the .886 Fib (a completed Bat Pattern) and go on to make new highs.

Could NKD bounce back into the red channel as though nothing ever happened?  Sure.  In a centrally planned “market” anything is possible.  But, today’s backtest of the broken channel bottom should at least give one pause.

GLTA.

The Nasdaq-100 Index hasn’t played nicely with respect to Harmonics or chart patterns — except those that manage to push the index higher.  It plunged 83% when the 2000 bubble popped and, after 15 years, has finally managed to retrace 88.6% of those losses.

The most prominent feature in the long-term chart is the white channel — almost all of which has been irrelevant as the index spent the vast majority in the top half (and, most of that in the top 23.6%.)Interestingly, the rise from 2009 has was fairly orderly until this past October.  NDX plunged below the bottom of the red rising wedge after reversing just past the white .786 at 3955.

But, as we all remember, Fed President Bullard went on TV to promise more QE, and the BOJ actually did roll out more QQE.  NDX was suddenly back in the rising wedge, zipping right along like nothing ever happened.  So, it’s especially intriguing to see it lose the support of that wedge yet again.

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In last quarter’s update on COMP, we suggested its immediate upside potential was to the 2000 top at 5132 [see: Mar 23 Update.]  The timing looked like late May.

All it took was a Fed president hinting at additional QE, and the BOJ greatly expanding their already enormous QQE.  After a close call on Apr 27, the actual tag occurred Jun 18 — a little over 15 years after the previous bubble popped.

Will those who rode the NASDAQ down nearly 80% be interested in sticking around now that they’re back to even?  Will new money find its way to this, the most volatile sector during the two previous crashes?

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The big picture shows a break out of the white channel top, but not the yellow.

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Last November,  we noted the Dow’s breakout from a long-standing rising wedge and megaphone pattern to new highs following the BOJ’s huge Oct 31 expansion of QQE [see: Nov 20, 2014 update].  It knocked the yen from 107 to 122 to the greenback, thus giving the flailing yen carry trade (and, of course, the Dow) a much-needed shot in the arm — enabling it to rebound from the broken purple rising wedge and go on to new highs.

We set a new upside target for DJIA at 18,274 — the completion of a Crab Pattern based on the 8.6% drop from 17,350 to 15,855 in October.  We noted at the time:

The megaphone pattern is severely dented — which was, of course, the whole point of Kuroda’s action.  Whether or not the breakout is maintained will be revealed in the coming weeks, and will depend largely on whether USDJPY reverses at 118-120.

As expected, USDJPY spiked to the critical .618 Fib level at 120.11, taking stocks along with it.  But, instead of reversing, it went essentially nowhere for several months.  Stocks initially sold off sharply after 120.11 was reached, but constant bounces to just above 120.11 kept them from falling too far.

Finally, in early March, USDJPY broke out to above the 120.11 level.  DJIA dutifully followed along, reaching our 18,274 target.  It didn’t last, however, slipping  back below 120 between mid-March and mid-May.

But, on May 26, USDJPY rallied not only above 120.11, but the March highs as well. It enabled DJIA to reach new highs, too (while breaking several chart pattern rules along the way.)  As we suspected, this move would also fail.

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