The Nasdaq-100 Index hasn’t played nicely with respect to Harmonics or chart patterns — except those that manage to push the index higher.  It plunged 83% when the 2000 bubble popped and, after 15 years, has finally managed to retrace 88.6% of those losses.

The most prominent feature in the long-term chart is the white channel — almost all of which has been irrelevant as the index spent the vast majority in the top half (and, most of that in the top 23.6%.)Interestingly, the rise from 2009 has was fairly orderly until this past October.  NDX plunged below the bottom of the red rising wedge after reversing just past the white .786 at 3955.

But, as we all remember, Fed President Bullard went on TV to promise more QE, and the BOJ actually did roll out more QQE.  NDX was suddenly back in the rising wedge, zipping right along like nothing ever happened.  So, it’s especially intriguing to see it lose the support of that wedge yet again.

continued for members…

The insinuation is that the price action over the past year is actually a channel (shown in purple) that will reach the all-time highs of 4816 in mid-July.  Yesterday’s backtest of the purple 1.618 Fib line suggests as much.  But, of course, channels have bottoms, too.

The purple midline sputtered and broke down yesterday — leaving the H&S Pattern target of 4160ish wide open.

The middle ground, should investors get so confused that they don’t march to the beat of the central bankers’ drums, is a tag of the white channel top at 4637 in mid-August.

GLTA.