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Congratulations to the 223,000 bartenders, waiters and retail clerks who found employment in June.  To the 640,000 Americans who gave up looking for work or whose unemployment benefits just ran out — no doubt you’re heading out to celebrate how your demise helped lower the official unemployment rate to 5.3%.

You’re part of an elite club — only 93.6 million of you — whose patriotic sacrifice will be duly noted by the Fed the next time they decline to raise interest rates in an effort to keep the “market” on the rise for more fortunate Americans.  Happy 4th of July, indeed.   From Zerohedge:

On to that “market.”  Yesterday, SPX nailed our bounce target offered on Monday, topping out at 2082.78.  From Monday’s post All That Matters:

…the charts suggest that the bounce could easily reach 2072 (the red channel midline) or, with a little more effort, 2081 (a backtest of the broken purple channel bottom.)

The futures are showing small gains this morning.  But USDJPY reversed as we expected yesterday.  It’ll be an uphill climb unless USDJPY breaks out.  And, our thesis remains that such a breakout is unlikely just yet.

The global financial markets feed on the yen carry trade.  And, the BOJ — under pressure like all central banks for the unacknowledged inflation they’re generating — won’t further devalue the yen until they’re in panic mode.  I doubt if last week’s 4% blip in the Nikkei 225 was enough to panic them.

Yesterday’s targets remain in place.

continued for members…

We picked 2082 as a good line in the sand, and SPX will likely surpass it in the opening minutes. But, I would be reluctant to jump on board only because of USDJPY’s failure to play along.

UPDATE:  12:33 PM

A quick alert, here.  While I still expect SPX to hit the 2039.66 downside target, there’s a very good chance that SPX will find support at the falling red channel midline here at 2072.

For those who remain bearish, at least consider stops to protect from a strong bounce, possibly up to the white target at the SMA100 (2096.10.)

If it slides through 2072, look for a bounce at the SMA200 (currently 2054.73) before any further downside to 2039.66.

UPDATE: 3:37 PM

SPX has successfully backtested the red midline and continues to inch higher, but it has yet to punch through the bottom of the purple channel.  The SMA100 and SMA20 are both up around 2096ish, with the TL at the SMA200 squarely in the rearview.

The only issue it that the SMA200 was never quite tagged — though that’s not unusual these days.CL suggests more downside……as does USDJPY.

As a result, my gut tells me we’ll get another leg down.  Though be cautious if holding a short position overnight.  Nervous types might wish to sit this one out and see what the news cycle brings in the morning.