Futures are up modestly, capping off a strong year for the S&P 500, up 23.9% through yesterday’s close (versus +24.2% in 2023.) But, it was a year of haves and have-nots. Companies like PLTR (+349.5%) and NVDA (+177.6%) soared, while stocks in real estate, energy and healthcare suffered through another depressing year. All together, the … continue reading →
Yearly Archives: 2024
Futures are off sharply on this, the next to the last day of the year. continued for members… … continue reading →
In our last update on RUT [see: Jul 23, 2024 Update] had recently reached our 2282 target and was within striking distance of our 2364 target after coming within 4 points of our 1629 downside target. RUT tumbled 13% to tag its 200-day moving average before making a run to 2364 last month. It wasn’t … continue reading →
Amidst all the hoopla over another positive year, it would be wise to consider that COMP has reached potentially important overhead resistance. continued for members… … continue reading →
In our Sep 24 update [see: Oil Prices Pressure Bonds] we noted the effect of rapidly rising oil and gas prices on the inflation outlook which, in turn, resulted in a sharp rise in the 10Y – from 3.61% to the current 4.62%.But, the bigger threat to equity prices appears in our yield curve model, … continue reading →
VIX has been falling steadily over the past two years – so steadily, in fact, that it has established a very well-formed falling channel that is nicely correlated with SPX’s unrelenting rally. The VIX futures (VX) chart above shows the sixth major spike running into overhead resistance from both the channel top as well as … continue reading →
November PCE came in slightly better than estimates at 0.1% versus 0.2% MoM and 2.4% versus 2.5% expected but higher than October’s 2.3%. All told, the print took a little pressure off futures, which are still down about 0.5% as we approach the open. Note that ES has nearly reached our 5852 target. continued for … continue reading →
Stocks fell off a cliff yesterday after Jay Powell delivered an arguably hawkish rate cut. The market reacted particularly strongly to the revised outlook for 2025 wherein the number of rate cuts was reduced from four to two. ES tumbled through our initial downside target at the 50-day moving average and is only just now … continue reading →
Futures are struggling after an overnight ramp job driven by VIX’s retreat from its 200-day moving average. Aside from the technicals, we see more and more analysts echoing our view that a rate cut makes little sense at this time. Our charts indicate three distinct and very concerning tripwires for equity investors which, depending on … continue reading →
While November retail sales gain of 0.7% beat expectations of 0.6%, sales excluding auto and gas came in well below consensus: 0.2% versus 0.4%. Markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25 bps rate cut tomorrow, but skeptics (like us) make a great argument that loose financial conditions and recent inflation increases suggest … continue reading →