In our last update on RUT [see: Jul 23, 2024 Update] had recently reached our 2282 target and was within striking distance of our 2364 target after coming within 4 points of our 1629 downside target.

RUT tumbled 13% to tag its 200-day moving average before making a run to 2364 last month. It wasn’t done, however, rallying to slightly above its Nov 21 highs where it reversed again – this time by 11%. The total run since Oct 2023: 51%.

As an index made up of small-cap companies, the Russell 2000 gets a lot less attention than the S&P 500 or the nonsensical Dow. But, its gyrations have helped us forecast the overall equity markets. So, it’s worth taking another quick look.

continued for members…

Note that RUT has fallen back below the dashed red trend line that served as resistance and occasional support for most of 2023-2024.

This, in addition to the fact that RUT formed a double top, suggests more downside in the days ahead. The SMA200(currently 2159) just reached the purple .618 and is about 4.6% below current prices.

It would make an appealing initial downside targets, with the white channel midline at 1918 the next major support if the SMA200 doesn’t hold.

Stay tuned…