pebblewriter

Year: 2022

  • The Bloom is Off the Rose

    Futures are off modestly as we approach the open. Aside from a few formerly shiny objects… …all eyes are on Thursday’s CPI.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 7, 2022

    Futures are up slightly as we approach the open – an extension of the bounce off recent lows.

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  • Helter Skelter

    This week has been one for the record books, with major market stalwarts plunging one day… …and soaring the next.S&P futures have ranged nearly 90 points already, and the market hasn’t even opened yet.continued for members… (more…)

  • Facebook Flops

    Futures are off sharply overnight on Facebook’s sensational plunge.

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  • COMP’s Moment of Truth

    COMP’s breakdown caught a lot of people by surprise (though thankfully, not everybody.) Likewise, its bounce has turned more than a few heads.  As it approaches a backtest of its channel line and SMA200, what can we expect? And what does it mean for the broader market?

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  • Bears Punt

    Yesterday, we stated it was time for the bears to put up or shut up. They punted. Thanks to VIX breaking down, SPX and ES are back above their 200-day moving averages for the first time since Jan 20, a move that clearly takes some pressure off.It doesn’t necessarily mean, however, that the the correction is over.

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  • Put Up or Shut Up

    SPX has been threatening to break back above its 200-day moving average ever since Jan 23. Despite numerous vigorous attempts, it remains below it, signalling more downside ahead.

    It’s time for the bears to put up or shut up.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jan 28, 2022

    Futures have been all over the map, but ES’ flag pattern is still intact.  All of our targets remain unchanged. Look out below.

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  • Update on Currencies: Jan 27, 2022

    EURUSD finally broke down, meaning DXY finally broke out.  We set the 1.0999 target over two months ago, reasoning that a breakdown in equities would send the dollar higher and the EURUSD lower. The DXY broke out two days later – even though the equity correction was delayed by year-end equity-propping silliness that saw DXY stuck in a holding pattern for over two months.

    Since the US is a net importer, the value of the USD is an important tool in the Fed’s inflation fighting toolkit.  All evidence to the contrary, the Fed insists they actually care about inflation.  We’ll take a fresh look at the currencies this morning to see what they suggest about inflation and the overall markets.

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  • The Fed’s Gut Check

    After Monday’s tumble, will Powell have the guts to stick to his inflation-fighting guns?  Futures are up about 1.5%, but are still just shy of the 200-day moving average.

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