On top of the world, with an adoring crowd gathered below and indifferent law enforcement milling about…there is a bit of a parallel between a famous rooftop concert and the current market. As stocks slink into the end of Q1 amidst a bevy of perils, there’s a sense of calm before the storm. Then again, … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: March 2021
Members will recall that one critical component of our oil/gas decline scenario is USDJPY’s breakout from the falling channel from 2017 shown below. Guess what? The yen carry trade is a tried and true method of goading the algos into buying equities – even overpriced ones. It works especially well as a counterweight to falling … continue reading →
The massive Ever Given container ship has been freed from the Suez Canal’s mud just in time for the market’s open. While positive for global trade, stocks are arguably more focused on the ambit of the latest Wall Street scandal – this one involving the Reddit-style goings-on of Archegos Capital and the banks which apparently … continue reading →
There’s a well-known scene at the end of the classic film Casablanca where Captain Renault (Claude Reins), having seen Rick (Humphrey Bogart) shoot a Nazi in order to enable Ilsa and Lazlo to escape, tells his men to “round up the usual suspects.” It saves Rick, Ilsa and Lazlo’s collective bacon (though I suspect it … continue reading →
We have multiple targets being reached this morning, and several more in the works. We’ll start with ES, which just tagged our SMA50 target in a backtest of the falling white channel from which it broke out two weeks ago. The one we’ve been waiting on for what feels like forever, though, is silver. SI … continue reading →
I know what you’re thinking: it’s “don’t fight the Fed.” While that’s generally true, too, the Bank of Japan is the central bank which most conspicuously wears its balance sheet on its sleeve. When my charts are a farrago of bearish indicators, but the Nikkei pushes up through resistance? I’ve learned to ignore the indicators … continue reading →
Today we get the benefit of both Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen telling us that, despite how incredible the outlook is, things are so horrible that they need to keep pumping billions of dollars into the markets every day. For the little people. You know – unemployed folks who can really benefit from rapidly rising … continue reading →
Oil and gas suffered their worst day in months, yields have backed off their highs, and the Nikkei has even broken down ever so slightly. Will central bankers back off their insistence that rising inflation and interest rates are of no concern? Maybe they’ve finally tired of yields being the cynosure of the financial press. … continue reading →
We finally saw the first big selloff of the tumble in oil and gas prices we forecast months ago [see: Jan 13 Update.] Though the technical damage isn’t that great yet, it’s only getting started. I’ll focus today on how the decline in oil/gas should play out over the next several months and how other … continue reading →
You didn’t have to read any further than the title of Freddie Mac’s latest quarterly market report to understand what’s happening in the housing market: It made me wonder just how important lower rates have been to price appreciation. And, given the Fed’s purported insouciance toward rising rates, how alarmed should we be that rates … continue reading →