The massive Ever Given container ship has been freed from the Suez Canal’s mud just in time for the market’s open. While positive for global trade, stocks are arguably more focused on the ambit of the latest Wall Street scandal – this one involving the Reddit-style goings-on of Archegos Capital and the banks which apparently neglected to check on their collateral from time to time.

The failure of some of the biggest and most sophisticated banks in the world to recognize the Long-Term Capital Management doppelgänger on their books is emblematic of the frenzy with which institutions and individuals alike regard the equity market. Why bother analyzing exposure when central banks will never allow a significant decline anyway?

Futures are off about 20 points – just enough to put SPX’s 3.618 Fibonacci extension at 3956.64 to the test on the open.

continued for members…

Holding SPX’s last minute ramp above its 3.618 on Friday will be job #1 for the bulls. If they can hold it, and I imagine they’ll try, then the downside case is severely damaged.  There’s quite the battle going on in VIX. And, USDJPY remains ready to break out if stocks need additional support. Gold and silver are having a tough morning, with SI again threatening that drop below its SMA200……and GC noticeably not rising to test its channel top. Bonds aren’t helping much, as yields are slightly higher and ZN is slumping. With the potential bottleneck in the Suez cleared up, oil and gas are suddenly without an artificial reason for ramping higher.

UPDATE:  3:50 PM

The ramp job is in full force, with SPX well above its 3.618 and ES within striking distance of its (it never actually tagged it, even though SPX did.) Perhaps after the close?

FWIW, TNX has closed its gap at 17.07.