It’s not that Q2 hasn’t been kind to investors. The S&P 500 is still up 39% from its March 23 lows (40% for the Dow, 49% for COMP.) But, it’s impossible to ignore how stocks got here and wonder whether they’ll continue to dance with the forces that brought them. Moreover, what happens if the … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: June 2020
Futures are up modestly this morning as we glide into the quarter end on a holiday-shortened, low-volume week. VIX’s triangle perfectly illustrates the technical picture: attempts to break out have been beaten back, while threats to break down have routinely been rebuffed. It’s exactly what one would expect when the goal is to maintain positive … continue reading →
Futures tested the important 2.618 Fib extension four times since yesterday’s close, bailing on the upper bound of a rising wedge with the last tag. This is a bearish pattern which, combined with numerous other bearish charts, still signals elevated risk. But, we’ve been beating that drum for a while. Today, I’ll focus on the … continue reading →
Today is a very important day in the markets. The signals that prompted us to short on several days ago are still intact, and more have joined their ranks – the most notable being the breakdown in the 10Y flag pattern. ES snuck down and tagged our SMA200 target overnight. To put things simply: If … continue reading →
As we slowly make our way toward the end of Q2, we continue to see tests of important support. They are usually followed by sharp bounces despite the growing evidence that a selloff is right around the corner.Will today be the day the market finally takes the plunge? continued for members… … continue reading →
When does “it’s over” mean it’s not over? When the market plunges 65 points, of course. The 2% hiccup came when Fox’s Martha MacCallum asked Trump advisor Peter Navarro whether John Bolton’s claims that Trump delayed imposing sanctions on China over its policy of interning Uighur Muslims would jeopardize the China trade deal. Navarro, fresh … continue reading →
Futures are off slightly this morning as ES has backtested the channel it meant to break out of on OPEX Friday. Today marks the beginning of the last seven sessions until the end of Q2 – traditionally a period of flat or rising prices. Can the seasonal trend offset the growing list of bearish fundamental … continue reading →
It would be unusual in normal times for stocks to drop on OPEX or a Quad Witching Friday. Given the massive stimulus inflating the markets, these are far from normal times. ES broke out of the falling channel it’s been in since June 10, primarily on the VIX breakdown and oil breakout we’ve been expecting. … continue reading →
Futures are heading for another test of the 2.618 Fib extension at 3076.93, the fourth since last pushing above it on Monday. There are numerous targets below, but that would mean cooperation from the algos – a rare commodity these days. The bearish case, however, is growing stronger every day. continued for members… … continue reading →
My two favorite Powell quotes from yesterday’s senate testimony: “I don’t see us wanting to run through the bond market like an elephant snuffling out price signals and things like that” and “We want to be there if things turn bad in the economy or if things go in a negative direction.” Without question, the … continue reading →