Unless something dramatic happens in the next 24 hours, November CPI will top 2% again. This obviously lends credence to the overwhelming market expectation for a rate hike in December. – even though PCE is still languishing well below target.Yet, there are still two events in the coming days that could give the Fed pause: … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: November 2017
Yesterday, I had one of those conversations that pops up every week or so. This time, it was a tech executive who was up to his eyeballs in tech stocks and was growing very, very nervous. He wanted to know if/when he should get out. I’d just seen this chart from Christian Mueller-Glissmann of Goldman … continue reading →
Following Citi’s warning that OPEC might be about to screw the pooch, Goldman is out with its own words of caution. “With the rhetoric not matching the logic for the first time in years, we believe that the outcome of this meeting is much more uncertain than usual,” Courvalin wrote. “We believe that oil prices … continue reading →
Friday offered further confirmation of the distortion in markets driven by manipulated algorithm inputs.SPX was rolling over as the early 10AM close approached. The only problem was that the SMA5 200 hadn’t even reached the 1.618 extension at 2599.41. VIX suddenly dropped from 9.69 to 8.56 — an 11.7% plunge in mere seconds. There would … continue reading →
Yesterday, the API released quite bullish inventory data which showed a large draw in crude (-6.4MM vs -2.2MM exp.) — the biggest draw since August. WTI futures rallied sharply on the news, while RBOB bumped a little higher before settling back down. This might be discouraging to those shorting oil and gas. But, the EIA … continue reading →
We had yet another head fake last night, as SPX closed below the latest rising trend line, the channel top and the SMA10. Traditionally, these are all short-term negative indicators from a technical standpoint.But, of course, short-term indicators can’t compare with the impact of a paradigmatic VIX beat down. It’s now off 30% since tagging … continue reading →
In our last Big Picture update on Oct 24, I downplayed the likelihood of the big downturn that more and more analysts were predicting. And, in fact, the drop which began the day before was limited to 34 points – about 1.3%. From there, SPX moved on to new highs, reaching 2597 on Nov 7. … continue reading →
VIX was crushed by 21.5% from Wednesday’s highs, sending stocks soaring. Nine times out of 10, the fact that it’s is poised on support would suggest they’ll continue to gain.But, oil and gas sunk some more, and the dollar is still struggling. This morning’s bounce aside, they’re not done. Is it time for bears to … continue reading →
Stocks had a nice move yesterday, making new lows before VIX and USDJPY prompted a 20-pt bounce (many hours before WMT’s earnings were announced.) In the process, we scored a nice win with VIX — which slightly exceeded our target (14.51 vs 14) before crashing back down — as well as with our short on … continue reading →
I have to be out for a couple of hours this morning. But, with S&P futures off 10 points, VIX up 10%, oil and gas down big again, and USDJPY continuing to break down, things are on track to reach our forecast price targets across the board.Yesterday’s PPI numbers got the ball rolling. Today’s CPI … continue reading →