“With the rhetoric not matching the logic for the first time in years, we believe that the outcome of this meeting is much more uncertain than usual,” Courvalin wrote. “We believe that oil prices have overshot fundamentals and that price risks are skewed to the downside into Thursday’s meeting.”
The research included a nifty graph illustrating what we discussed last week: excessive long positioning has consistently resulted in price declines.Not surprisingly, CL has ignored these latest naysayers and has continued to hold its gains of the last two months — despite the negative divergence, excessive spec long positions, etc.And, even though prices at the pump continue to settle lower, RBOB is holding on to its gains. With only 3 sessions left in November, are we looking at another 2%+ CPI read?
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