VIX was crushed by 21.5% from Wednesday’s highs, sending stocks soaring.  Nine times out of 10, the fact that it’s is poised on support would suggest they’ll continue to gain.But, oil and gas sunk some more, and the dollar is still struggling. This morning’s bounce aside, they’re not done.

Is it time for bears to throw in the towel?

continued for members…SPX broke out of the falling purple channel and has done a nice job of establishing another, less aggressive falling white channel.It wouldn’t take much for it to break out, as is even more evident from ES’ chart.We’ve seen this movie so many times before that it’s hard to get excited about a big downturn here.  Reaching ES 2533 would now require a pretty noticeable breach of the channel midline.

USDJPY is sneaking down to our bounce target with, so far, little effect on equities.  If it bounces at 111.75, then it can carry stocks while CL completes a much needed nose-dive.  If it falls through the SMA100, then stocks might be in real trouble.

At this point, DXY is clinging to SMA100 support as GC continues to look vulnerable.  But, that could change in a heartbeat if, as I suspect, the tax bill comes unraveled.  Just an FYI…I have to take off early today to run folks to the airport.  I should be able to post until about 11:30-12:00.  Next week, I’ll post first thing in the morning Monday through Wednesday.

I have a quick errand to run this morning, will be back around 10:30.

UPDATE:  12:35 PM

Watching paint dry, here.  VIX has dipped slightly below the channel bottom, but that’s been a head fake a few times before so no one’s taking the bait just yet.  SPX/ES are both off a few points, propped up by CL/RB bounce even as USDJPY melts down.  I’d be prepared to take profits on USDJPY if/when it tags the SMA100 or 200.