This morning, AAPL reached the first target set for it in our Jul 31 forecast.

This move tags the red 1.618, the purple 1.272 and the yellow .382.  The white .618 at 514.56 is just .82 above today’s high.

Thanks to Carl Icahn’s buying (and discovery of Twitter)  AAPL got here without the use of the IH&S we were tracking.  The right shoulder never really materialized; so, the IH&S is iffy at best.

As we noted back in July, this move could very well constitute the entirety of APPL’s rally.  It has reached the top of the purple channel.  And, topping out at the .618 of the white pattern would repeat AAPL’s habit of running out of steam at .618 Fib levels all the way down from 705.

Last, take note of the rising grey channel line that runs through the purple and yellow circles.  This is the bottom of the channel that has guided prices ever since 1995.  It broke down in Feb, was backtested once already, and might be setting up for another backtest.

Its breakdown definitely opens the door to those lower H&S and Fib targets we’ve been discussed over the past 6-7 months.  But, we’re likely to at least digest some of these gains and, potentially, the neckline down around 455ish.

If AAPL can’t break out of the falling purple channel, the white .786 at 307 (and largest H&S target) looks like a very real possibility for December/January.

If, as I suspect, it’s able to push through, then look for it to tag our 560ish target in September and our 570 target before the end of the year — ideally October.

I like AAPL products.  I use AAPL products.   At last count, I own 3 notebooks, a desktop, an iMac, three iPhones and an iPod Touch.  But, there’s no question the product pipeline is as stale as could be.  Check out the MacRumors.com buying guide — chock full of admonishments of Don’t Buy!

And, the glitches with existing products has reached the ridiculous stage.  The latest, greatest product — the new MacBook Air — apparently can’t hold a WiFi signal and the screen occasionally goes black. I’d love to buy a new one, but wouldn’t think about it until these vital issues are worked out (the company hasn’t even acknowledged them.)

And, customer service ain’t what it used to be.  I’m still miffed at Apple’s insistence that I first spend $30 to buy a copy of Snow Leopard (the interim step) in order to upgrade an old MacBook from Leopard to Lion.

In short, this is a once great company that’s stumbling quite a bit.  I don’t know whether or not it will recover.  But, they need new, innovative, bug-free product and they need it fast!