The USDJPY tested the top of the small falling white channel and the .786 of the larger falling white channel.
DX is still lurking below the purple midline. It got close, but never did tag the white .886 …yet.
And, the eminis have done surprisingly little overnight other than completing the 1.618 tag as expected — very close to channel support.
UPDATE: 9:35 AM
We’re getting a little follow through from Friday’s selling, tagging the purple .382 and white channel .618 line at the bottom of the falling red channel. We should see enough support here for a meaningful bounce (i.e. a bottom, not the bottom) and remain long from late Friday.
UPDATE: 11:35 AM
SPX retraced .886 of its drop from 1659.88, then reversed to retrace about .707 of that move. Odds are we’ll see a full .786 or .886 retrace on the red grid as well, down to 1653.25 or 1652.49.
Obviously, a drop through 1651.63 would seriously damage the odds of a bounce as big as I’ve anticipated.
BTW, I’ve just updated the AAPL charts for those interested. The stock has reached the target we set for it back on Jul 31. See HERE.
continued for members…
UPDATE: 12:23 PM
UPDATE: 1:26 PM
SPX just poked past the red .886. It should be done with this corrective wave. Full long, with stops at 1651.60.
UPDATE: 1:31 PM
Spoke too soon. Back to short here with the break of 1651.60.
My only concern in taking a short position here is the location of a white channel line at about 1649.60. Stops in the area of of 1651-1652 would make sense.
The next critical support level is 1647.66 — the Jul 10 low.
UPDATE: 1:51 PM
Just tagged the intersection of the red and 2 white channel lines almost exactly. Still thinking we should get a reaction off that intersection — which we were just shy of earlier this morning — as well as the purple .382 (the 1560-1709 rally.)
I’ll try going long again here at 1651. If the bounce doesn’t materialize, the next real support is probably around 1617-1622.
UPDATE: 2:31 PM
Don’t like the way this is looking. Forget the bounce, I’m back to full short here at 1651.
It seems fairly likely that the 10-yr bond will top 3% in the next week or so. I thought it would get a reversal at 2.846 (the purple .618), but it just shot through that resistance this morning.
The combo white .618/1.618 at 30.13-30.17 is the next resistance, and I’d be very surprised if TNX didn’t reach it this go ’round.
UPDATE: 3:50 PM
Tough choice here, going into the close. There’s plenty of downside left, with the next target around 1643.15. But, I’m a bit gun shy after getting too eager to find a nice big bounce. And, I’m not crazy about the lack of serious momentum.
ES looks like it might get a bounce at 1638, but that could come overnight — leaving SPX gapping higher in the morning.
I suppose I’ll hold my nose and stay short overnight, though I sure wouldn’t recommend it for the queasy types or those who can’t hedge.