Charts I’m Watching: Aug 20, 2013


The USDJPY continues to slide…

While the EURUSD shoots up past 1.34 again.

The harmonic picture for EURUSD just got very complicated.  Another test of the yellow channel bottom to match the last downside move?

The dollar, of course, is taking it on the chin — dipping below the low of Aug 8, but reaching its own supportive channel bottom.

The eminis tagged the purple 1.618 and got a bounce, and are currently up only .25.

There’s much focus on the 10-yr note, which is threatening to breach the 3% mark.

The harmonic picture indicates it will, with the pink .618 and white 1.618 together, just above at 30.13 and 30.17.

But, as the chart shows, there is resistance from the top of the purple channel, the top of the yellow channel, and the yellow .382 Fib line — not to mention plenty of intervention from TPTB working to keep it below 3%.

UPDATE:  10:30 AM

SPX moving through the white channel line; going long here at 1651 for protective purposes. Stops at 1650.

This is likely a fleshing out of the red channel, which has become quite lopsided with the price movement since last Thursday.  If SPX can break 1654.79, the next resistance is the white .786 at 1660.86.

Note that TNX has dropped down to backtest its broken .236 channel line.

UPDATE:  10:55 AM

One wildcard is USDJPY, which — though it made a new low this morning — is approaching the red .618 Fib level.

We might normally expect a significant bounce at the .618, but I believe the pattern is probably correctly labeled below.  Point B is already in at < .618, signalling at least a Bat Pattern down to 96.12.

Note the pair is still trading well below the latest H&S neckline.

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