Happy Anniversary! Today marks 90 years to the day since shares of Hatry Group were suspended by the London Stock Exchange (Sep 20, 1929.) The company collapsed, crashing the London Stock Exchange. The Dow began its 89% crash a month later.
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On September 20, 1929, the London Stock Exchange suspended shares of the Hatry group after its founder, Clarence Hatry, was found to have purchased United Steel Companies with fraudulent collateral. The Hatry group collapsed, costing investors billions and sending the London Stock Exchange into a tailspin. This news put US investors on edge.
Stocks are fairly quiet this morning, with VIX off another 3.5% overnight — just enough to push futures up to resistance as algos remain hyper-focused on VIX and USDJPY.
Interesting that yesterday’s monkey hammering was enough to push SPX but not ES to higher highs…
However, there was a reason SPX needed to reach 3021.99.
continued for members…
In so doing, its C=A mark is keeping pace with the SMA200, which is now above the Aug 5 lows.
ES and SPX have both refused to break down yet. But, the broken rising wedge is pretty obvious on both charts.
CL and RB continue to look weak with RB likely to join CL in closing its recent gap.
CL appears likely to backtest the broken purple channel and SMA200.
And, USDJPY continues to threaten a breakout. It’s just enough to prop up stocks but not so much as to cause stocks to break to new highs. This is a common ploy for USDJPY. It very effectively did so in 2007 (#6 below) in order to drive SPX to new highs instead of a deep retracement of its 2003 highs.
Note the completed and broken rising wedge.
While USDJPY settles closer to the channel top, it has yet to really break down — which would decimate stocks. Note where ES was the last time USDJPY tagged its horizontal support at 104.59.
I was in the middle of some fascinating big-picture charting last night when I finally ran out of gas (can’t handle the 15-hour days as well as I used to.) I’m going to spend the next couple of hours finishing up those charts and will post them here when finished.
UPDATE: 3:30PM
Stocks reversed on the news that China’s trade delegation cancelled its farm country visits. USDJPY is moving the most, though VIX got a nice pop before TPTB were able to put a lid on it.
I believe VWAP and Max Pain are both right at 3000, meaning we’re unlikely to see a melt down take place this afternoon. Though, it is quad witching day, so things could get wacky in a jiffy.
If not today, then Monday should see some follow through — assuming a trade deal doesn’t get signed in the next 48 hours.
CL is trying to make a comeback after overshooting the red TL to the downside.

Note how VIX is backing off its initial thrust higher.
USDJPY is proving a little more difficult to control.
The 10Y is rallying nicely from its channel bottom, promising much more turmoil for stocks next week.
I’m going to take off and will finish those big picture charts tomorrow when I’m a little fresher.
GLTA.


Comments
2 responses to “Ulterior Motives”
Looks like a possible fuse has been lit this afternoon. Trade deal news still seems very important to sentiment.
Yes, indeed. It’s always nice to have some sort triggering event that starts a panic. Otherwise, it’s just too cheap and easy for the algos to turn things around.