Minute by Minute

The Fed will release its June minutes this afternoon, potentially shedding some light on why they paused their rate hikes. But, thanks to plenty of Fedspeak – including Jay Powell’s testimony – we already know that they are as confused and conflicted as everyone else. As always, they are more concerned about markets than anything … continue reading →

Powell: Inflation Not Over

“Inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go,” Powell asserted in prepared remarks in advance of his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Our charts certainly agree. As posted last week, there is little chance of inflation not bouncing back … continue reading →

Stocks vs Bonds

The OPEX meltup continued overnight, with futures up modestly to new 9-month highs. Powell speaks at 11am ET and might shed some light on the implications of treasury yields which have pushed to new cycle highs – reflecting a much more cautious assessment of the debt ceiling negotiations. continued for members… … continue reading →

Durable Orders’ Mixed Bag

There’s something in March’s durable orders report for both bulls and bears. The 3.2% topline number was wildly better than the 0.7% expected and -1.2% previous.  But, it was driven primarily by large Boeing orders. Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.4%. And core shipping logged another 0.4% drop. … continue reading →

Retail Sales Slip, VIX Warns

March retail sales came in at -1.0% versus -0.4% expected and -0.2% previous. Core slipped 0.3%.  Early reaction is that the drop wasn’t enough to forestall another rate hike in May.  So far, the futures have taken the news in stride.But, it remains to be seen whether the algos will view the setup as positively.  … continue reading →

PPI Echoes CPI

After closing below its 10-day SMA for the first time in a month, ES is backtesting it……on the back of PPI data that essentially echoed yesterday’s CPI print. Headline PPI crashed to 2.7% YoY and -0.5% MoM. Though stripping out food and energy, core PPI fell only 0.1% MoM and increased 3.4% YoY. As we … continue reading →

The Chartists at OPEC+

It was touch and go on Friday as XLE pushed above its 200-day moving average and WTI smacked into its 50-day. Fortunately for oil bulls and inflation enthusiasts, OPEC+ was watching the same charts and took action. continued for members… … continue reading →