ORIGINAL POST: 9:15 AM Last night, the dollar tagged the .786 Fib retracement of its decline from Apr 4. It subsequently sold off almost to the .618 but, so far, is hanging in a rising wedge. The EURUSD re-tested the .500 Fib of its rise from Apr 3, and snapped back into its falling wedge … continue reading →
Tag Archives: Inverse H&S
Looks like we’re getting some follow-through this morning on Friday’s technical rally. But, this doesn’t appear to be one worth chasing unless it can push up strongly through 1560. I’ll play along on the opening with an interim long position, with tight stops for the fizzle that could come quite quickly. If 1560 is exceeded, … continue reading →
The chart of the day: We closed our longs (from 1539) yesterday, but are still a few points south of the market’s upside potential. While yesterday’s 1589.07 might end up being the top, I rather suspect we’ll move just a little higher. Recall that we anticipated being in this situation a week ago [Charts I’m … continue reading →
With Cyprus saved, the sanctity of the EU intact, and a US budget deal passed, we can all go back to watching the market ratchet up 10 points/day, right? Here’s the fundamental problem. continued for members… … continue reading →
The 2000 top shows just how “messy” tops can be. Here’s the finished picture in perfect hind-sight. It’s a very crowded chart, but every single pattern had a say in how the top unfolded. SPX had zoomed from 442 to 1478 in about 5 years, a not-too-shabby 234% gain for an annually compounded 27%. Once … continue reading →
RUT has reached the upper bound of a well-defined channel that dates back to 1998. It could leak slightly higher in reaching for the top of the large rising wedge and some key Fib levels, but I suspect RUT has reached a turning point. continued for members… … continue reading →
Yesterday was a great example of the beauty of Harmonics. In conjunction with my RSI work and channel work, we were able to rack up 23 points on a day when the big picture is still fairly negative (remember Italy, the sequester, negative GDP, retailers’ horrid guidance?) By drawing important Fibonacci lines in the sand, … continue reading →
The first of a two-part article on harmonics trading strategies. Part 1. January 28, 2013 Harmonics are a great source of information about the market, but they don’t tell you how or when to trade any more than do MACD crosses or breadth indicators. So, how do you use them? This discussion of the basic … continue reading →
The dollar broke down from its steepest channel (in white) as I suspected, settling into a consolidation that might flesh out the larger purple channel today or tomorrow before breaking out of the yellow channel it’s been in since Nov 12. My target remains the .618 at 79.319 on the purple grid. I say “might” … continue reading →
I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas. Intra-day posts will be open to the public this week, my little gift to those considering a pebblewriter membership. Sorry, but our forecast will still be available to members only. As announced on Monday, subscription prices will increase on January 1. In keeping with our practice of paying … continue reading →