pebblewriter

Tag: interest rates

  • Durable Orders’ Mixed Bag

    There’s something in March’s durable orders report for both bulls and bears. The 3.2% topline number was wildly better than the 0.7% expected and -1.2% previous.  But, it was driven primarily by large Boeing orders.

    Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.4%. And core shipping logged another 0.4% drop.

    Stocks were little phased, as they’re still marching to VIX’s drumbeat. But, the 2Y is back below 4% as First Republic reminds us that the banking crisis has not gone away.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 24, 2023

    Futures are flat this morning after climbing back from a 20-pt overnight deficit.  With scores of companies due to report earnings this week, we should be in for a wild ride.continued for members… (more…)

  • Earnings Suddenly Matter

    Futures are off about 30 points on disappointing earnings from stocks such as TSLA, AXP, KEY, etc. and a continuing slump in oil and gas.

    VIX is even popping as we approach the open. If it holds, the rollover in equities will have officially begun.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 19, 2023

    Futures are off moderately on light volume…

    … and, surprise!, a rebound in VX futures, but not VIX itself. Oh yeah, Friday is OPEX.

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  • Algos Take Charge

    ES is up 1.3% in the past week. All it took was a 15% beatdown in VIX.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 17, 2023

    VIX came within .01 of its previous lows on Friday……leaving plenty of doubt as to the algos’ next move. Today, we should see some resolution as moving averages start to roll over.

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  • Retail Sales Slip, VIX Warns

    March retail sales came in at -1.0% versus -0.4% expected and -0.2% previous. Core slipped 0.3%.  Early reaction is that the drop wasn’t enough to forestall another rate hike in May.  So far, the futures have taken the news in stride.But, it remains to be seen whether the algos will view the setup as positively.  VIX’s previous bounces off the TL from Jan 2018 have been tough on stocks.

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  • PPI Echoes CPI

    After closing below its 10-day SMA for the first time in a month, ES is backtesting it……on the back of PPI data that essentially echoed yesterday’s CPI print. Headline PPI crashed to 2.7% YoY and -0.5% MoM. Though stripping out food and energy, core PPI fell only 0.1% MoM and increased 3.4% YoY.

    As we discussed yesterday, 80% of the MoM decline was due to the sharp drop in gasoline prices.

    Also out this morning, credit portfolio managers agree with the Fed’s assessment that the economy is headed for recession. It’s a troubling backdrop as we enter earnings season in the midst of a credit crunch.

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  • Core Tops Headline CPI

    For the first time in over two years, core CPI topped headline.  Core, which ignores food and gas prices, climbed 0.4% MoM and 5.6% YoY, while headline came in at 0.1% MoM and 5.0% YoY.

    Not surprisingly, futures jumped at the news that headline CPI had dropped. But, our charts still show an important risk just ahead.

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  • Jobless Claims Pile On

    Job cuts rose to 228K (vs 200K expected) last week. It will officially register as a drop, however, as the previous week was revised from 198K to 246K.  When viewed through the prism of new highs in bankruptcies and an earnings implosion… …it’s not too surprising that futures are drifting lower. continued for members… (more…)