pebblewriter

Tag: gas

  • FOMC Day: May 3, 2023

    Futures are essentially flat ahead of today’s pivotal FOMC decision and press conference.  This follows a day that saw stock prices plunge below our initial backtest target……as VIX actually broke out – at least for a few hours. The banking crisis obviously hasn’t gone away. How many more First Republics or Silicon Valley banks are out there – clicks away from a bank run? Even those banks which aren’t already in trouble will most certainly cut back on lending, which will certainly raise the odds of a (worse) recession.

    Will the FOMC take that into account as they contemplate future actions?

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  • FOMC on Deck

    Futures are off modestly in the run-up to tomorrow’s FOMC decision.

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  • Price Setting

    After establishing a well-formed falling channel and positioning for a bearish 10/20 cross, SPX soared last week on  – what else? – another collapse in VIX.

    In the process, the 10/20 cross was (at least) delayed and the channel busted.  It’s normal activity for the lead up to a Fed meeting. Perhaps “price discovery” should be renamed “price setting.”

    Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised to see similar goings on in other “markets” such as silver.

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  • Q1 GDP Disappoints

    GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.1% versus expectations of over 2% and Q4’s 2.6%, fueling both recession fears and expectations that the Fed will soon halt rate hikes after next week’s 25 bps increase.

    Futures dipped on the news but have since rebounded as the usual VIX smackdown convinced algos to look on the bright side.

    For now, algos are ignoring the hotter Q1 PCE data embedded in the GDP print.

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  • Durable Orders’ Mixed Bag

    There’s something in March’s durable orders report for both bulls and bears. The 3.2% topline number was wildly better than the 0.7% expected and -1.2% previous.  But, it was driven primarily by large Boeing orders.

    Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.4%. And core shipping logged another 0.4% drop.

    Stocks were little phased, as they’re still marching to VIX’s drumbeat. But, the 2Y is back below 4% as First Republic reminds us that the banking crisis has not gone away.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 24, 2023

    Futures are flat this morning after climbing back from a 20-pt overnight deficit.  With scores of companies due to report earnings this week, we should be in for a wild ride.continued for members… (more…)

  • Earnings Suddenly Matter

    Futures are off about 30 points on disappointing earnings from stocks such as TSLA, AXP, KEY, etc. and a continuing slump in oil and gas.

    VIX is even popping as we approach the open. If it holds, the rollover in equities will have officially begun.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 19, 2023

    Futures are off moderately on light volume…

    … and, surprise!, a rebound in VX futures, but not VIX itself. Oh yeah, Friday is OPEX.

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  • Algos Take Charge

    ES is up 1.3% in the past week. All it took was a 15% beatdown in VIX.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 17, 2023

    VIX came within .01 of its previous lows on Friday……leaving plenty of doubt as to the algos’ next move. Today, we should see some resolution as moving averages start to roll over.

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