pebblewriter

Tag: gas

  • FOMC Day: Jul 26, 2023

    Equities have ramped almost 12% since the last Fed meeting – ignoring the prospect of higher interest rates for a longer period of time. Given the oil market’s recent breakout and the obvious base effect on inflation, we see a good chance of Powell presenting a more hawkish stance than the overbought market is prepared for…

    …raising the prospect of spike in the 10Y to 4.76% by mid-August. One of the few developments that could prevent it: a collapse in oil/gas prices.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Forcing Their Hand

    The recent breakout in oil/gas prices has now inspired a breakout in the 10Y.

    It’s an important headwind for the Fed, which had relied on falling energy prices to keep inflation and interest rates at an acceptable level.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Inflation Not Done

    We might be done with inflation, but judging by the oil/gas markets, it’s not done with us. Both CL and RB have now broken out of channels dating back to early 2022 – with CL pushing above its 200-day moving average this morning.

    The Fed has its work cut out for it this week – and for the next several months.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • OPEX Eve

    Futures are sagging after powering through another key Fibonacci level. At this point, the only question is whether or not we see a backtest.

    With OPEX coming up tomorrow, it’s unclear whether we could get a full backtest of the .786 at 4534.63.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Update on Currencies: Jul 18, 2023

    EURUSD tagged our 1.1273 target overnight. It came a little earlier than expected, but it’s a significant development given the pair’s correlation with stocks.continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jul 17, 2023

    Futures are off slightly on low volume on a slow news day.

    Some significant Fibonacci levels have been reached, however, setting up potential large moves in equities.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Stagflation Data

    With CPI due out tomorrow, we should see confirmation of how behind the curve the FOMC continues to be. Whether or not the data comes in above estimates, it will still be well above the Fed’s professed target of 2% – meaning the pause was yet another mistake served up in the interest of propping up equity markets.

    Just a reminder: with CPI around 4% and GDP below 2%, we’ve got stagflation. And, the Fed has no answer for that.

    continued for members... (more…)

  • All Eyes on Inflation Data

    Futures are off modestly after the usual overnight VIX slump. Markets are focused on this week’s economic data, with CPI coming out Wednesday and PPI and initial claims on Thursday. continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jul 7, 2023

    ES nailed our initial downside target yesterday and is currently off about 10 points this morning following weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Minute by Minute

    The Fed will release its June minutes this afternoon, potentially shedding some light on why they paused their rate hikes. But, thanks to plenty of Fedspeak – including Jay Powell’s testimony – we already know that they are as confused and conflicted as everyone else. As always, they are more concerned about markets than anything else.

    Futures are off about 0.50% as we approach the open.

    continued for members… (more…)