pebblewriter

Tag: gas

  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 5, 2023

    Futures are off moderately this morning on low holiday volume.

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  • PCE On the Rise

    After falling for months, YoY PCE ticked higher in July: 3.3% versus 3.0% in June. Excluding food and energy, the print was 4.2% versus 4.1% in June.The data pared some of the overnight ramp, with futures easing lower as we approach the opening bell.

    In other economic news, personal spending (0.8% MoM) rose faster than expected while income (0.2% MoM) grew slower than expected – not an optimal combination when trying to avoid a recession.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 29, 2023

    Futures are off slightly in advance of consumer confidence data due out at 10 ET.

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  • Powell Back in the Spotlight

    It’s been lonely maintaining that rates would continue to rise over the past 10 months. As we noted in Decision Time:

    “TNX…looks likely to test 47.55 after it digests recent gains.”

    After the 10Y topped its Oct 21 highs, folks started coming around. Now it’s looking fairly obvious.The only question is whether Powell will fess up to the coming rise in CPI and, therefore interest rates, in his speech at Jackson Hole (1005 ET.)

    As we discussed a few days ago [see: Interesting Goings On in Currencies] the cross currents in rates and currencies are problematic for the market. We saw ample evidence yesterday when futures gave up a strong opening  – breaking out of a well-formed channel only to close deep in the red.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 24, 2023

    Futures have broken out on a new VIX “breakdown” and the runup in NVDA shares – now the 4th largest component of the S&P500.This seems off to us, as Powell is likely to come out more hawkish than expected in his Jackson Hole comments.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 22, 2023

    Futures are up 0.40% largely on bullish algo positioning……with VIX now down 13.4% since Friday’s 200-day moving average tag.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 21, 2023

    Futures are up modestly in advance of the Jackson Hole symposium. continued for members… (more…)

  • VIX: Decision Time

    VIX’s constant slide has been one of the best indicators of the runaway bullishness over the past 10 months. Over the past week, however, it has soared to new highs, reaching our 200-day moving average target well ahead of schedule. What does it portend for equities?

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 17, 2023

    Futures are up modestly on stronger growth data and an approaching OPEX.

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  • Blowout Retail Sales Nudge Rates Higher

    We’ve stuck stubbornly to our forecast for the 10Y to reach 4.75 for nearly a year, betting that sticky inflation would force the Fed’s hand. We came within 6 bps of new highs this morning after retail sales soared 0.7% (expected 0.4%) in July.

    Futures held on to their lows, though the pre-opening shenanigans haven’t yet begun (keep a close eye on DXY and VIX.) We don’t expect the bulls to give up SPX’s 50-day (4443.43) without a fight.

    The challenge for bears now, as back in October 2022 when the 10Y tagged our 4.26 target [see: More OPEX Games] is that we’re up against OPEX (Friday.)  Back then, it meant the 10Y’s channel collapsed and the next leg higher was postponed until after equities’ year-end run for the barn. If TPTB have their way, SPX’s 50-day backtest would be a springboard for a nice bounce.

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