September retail sales sharply beat estimates, coming in at +1.9% versus 0.8% expected. With enhanced unemployment and virtually all other stimulus having dried up, however, this could be retail’s last hurrah.
But, it’s enough to boost stock prices on this OPEX Friday 2 1/2 weeks before a presidential election.
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Futures tagged our initial downside target overnight as markets are once again reminded that the pandemic is far from over.
The shutdown headlines out of Europe won’t surprise anyone who has been watching the COVID-19 numbers.
The US, which was considerably less successful in suppressing cases following the initial or second surge, is on the same path – but from a much higher base.
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CPI rose 0.2% MoM in September, half the August rate. It rose 1.4% YoY, slightly higher than September’s 1.3%. Without the outsized gains in used cars and the minor gains in energy (conflicting with the official EIA data), MoM CPI would likely have been negative.
This is hardly supportive of the reflation narrative driving equity prices lately. This should be the last straw for the 10Y’s bounce, with the resulting breakdown a significant headwind for stocks.
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More gimmicks, higher highs. It’s getting to be an old story. But, as long as voters and algos don’t know or care, it will continue.
Futures were in danger of giving up Tuesday’s 3421.75 highs when VIX suddenly collapsed by 7% in a matter of seconds.
When that didn’t immediately result in a sufficient boost, it happened again, this time around the jobless claims miss at 8:32 and yet again at 9:02 (by 9.8%) for good measure.
Higher highs, no problem.
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The trade deal: the gift that keeps on giving.
The August trade deficit came in at $67.1 billion, the largest since 2006 – partly a reflection of the pandemic but exacerbated by a 9.3% collapse in the value of the DXY since its March highs.
At the same time, oil and gas prices have spiked sharply higher since reaching our downside targets on Oct 2. So, bond traders can be forgiven for bidding up the 10Y to nearly 0.80%.
If the past is any indication, DXY has much further to go and trade deficits will continue to rise – hardly the outcome the White House promised amid the destructive trade talks in 2018. Remember when the market rallied on every rumored breakthrough?
No worries, though, as VIX “coincidentally” collapsed by 10% in a matter of seconds, thus preserving a positive open.
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It’s not Trump, it’s the algos. While the mainstream media focuses on rumors regarding Trump’s return to office, the algos are zeroed in on VIX’s latest failure push above its 200-DMA.
This is a kitchen sink moment. Oil and gas are pitching in, with 4.5% and 5.5% pops respectively in the pre-market. And, even USDJPY is threatening a bullish 10/20 cross.
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Futures ramped higher overnight, continuing to dance to the tune of VIX’s smackdown and ongoing rumors of a fiscal stimulus deal…
…and ignoring troubling pandemic facts.
But, we’re finally into October and Q4. And, as we discussed yesterday, things are about to get very interesting.
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A new week, a new breakout in the after-hours for no particular reason.
And, just when the ramp job started to waver, a 5.6% smackdown on VIX – no news, just a reminder not to focus on the pandemic, the millions out of work, our dysfunctional Congress, the coming election battle, Trump’s tax troubles, etc.
Why? Because they can.
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ES is reaching our next downside target right on schedule.
Note that if ES hadn’t spurted past its February highs in late August, falling to our 100-DMA target would have involved a fairly shallow drop of 5.5% and would have preserved the rising white channel.
Instead, we have a 10.8% loss so far and face much greater technical damage if support isn’t retaken – all for the sake of completely unjustified higher all-time highs.
Fear and greed. It’s the same old story when it comes to markets, even in the age of algorithms and central bank interference.
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