The great thing about channels is that they tell you quite precisely when a trend change has occurred. The falling white channel seen on ES was tested just prior to the open yesterday. A simple smackdown on VIX and it was off to the races. As we noted at the time, ES’ 10-DMA had dropped … continue reading →
Tag Archives: EURUSD
The week is kicking off with a 75-pt ramp job from yesterday’s lows and will feature both a Fed meeting and OPEX. Oh, and VIX gapped down last night. What could go wrong? continued for members… … continue reading →
Let’s talk about inflation. At 0.4%, both headline and core handily beat consensus of 0.3% and 0.2%. Why? This morning’s CPI release is a treasure trove of information regarding price action in the general economy. On an annual basis, energy tanked and food soared. MoM, food was still strong while energy and used cars soared … continue reading →
Maybe the Fed had it right, leaving the door open to higher inflation. Though August headline PPI came in slightly higher than expected at 0.3% vs 0.2%, core PPI rose 0.4% versus 0.2% expected. S&P futures sold off 8 points on the news, but the algos had other ideas. As is often the case, “someone” … continue reading →
S&P 500 futures have bounced 77 points off their 50-DMA overnight lows, a substantial sum but not yet enough to break out of ES’ falling wedge which would be tested at 3380-3385. It raises the question: is this a garden variety pause or is the excitement over? continued for members… … continue reading →
Stocks nailed our second downside target from last Friday [see: Correction Warning.] Judging from the financial press, it was a shock to the average investor. It’s sad that a 4.5% correction would warrant such concern. But, as I often say, that’s the world in which we’re living. Bulls need February’s highs to hold, while bears … continue reading →
After a couple of days of VIX rising while stocks spiked higher, it only makes sense that VIX is falling while stocks are tumbling. This is the bizzaro world in which we’re living. Unless it bounces sharply on our channel bottom target today, add CL to the list of algo drivers which have experienced a … continue reading →
VIX’s 10/20 cross held yesterday, meaning we almost got a lower low on the day. The overnight ramp job was good for 32 points before DXY started attracting attention. It has dropped below the falling trend line it was patiently following, meaning our forecasts in the currency space are accelerating – especially EURUSD and silver. … continue reading →
Another Thursday, another million filing for unemployment. Hopefully news of Jeff Bezos’ net worth topping $200 billion will take some of the sting out of being unemployed. As usual, the futures couldn’t care less, preferring to focus instead on whether or not the Fed will keep refilling the punch bowl following its virtual Jackson Hole … continue reading →
Futures tagged our white channel midline target again overnight… …before bouncing when VIX reversed for the third time at trend line resistance.Note that ES’ white channel midline was first topped back on March 25. Since then, it has been tested 12 times. Clearly, someone thinks it’s pretty important. Who am I to argue? All I … continue reading →