pebblewriter

Tag: ES

  • FOMC on Deck

    Futures are off modestly in the run-up to tomorrow’s FOMC decision.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Price Setting

    After establishing a well-formed falling channel and positioning for a bearish 10/20 cross, SPX soared last week on  – what else? – another collapse in VIX.

    In the process, the 10/20 cross was (at least) delayed and the channel busted.  It’s normal activity for the lead up to a Fed meeting. Perhaps “price discovery” should be renamed “price setting.”

    Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised to see similar goings on in other “markets” such as silver.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Q1 GDP Disappoints

    GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.1% versus expectations of over 2% and Q4’s 2.6%, fueling both recession fears and expectations that the Fed will soon halt rate hikes after next week’s 25 bps increase.

    Futures dipped on the news but have since rebounded as the usual VIX smackdown convinced algos to look on the bright side.

    For now, algos are ignoring the hotter Q1 PCE data embedded in the GDP print.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Durable Orders’ Mixed Bag

    There’s something in March’s durable orders report for both bulls and bears. The 3.2% topline number was wildly better than the 0.7% expected and -1.2% previous.  But, it was driven primarily by large Boeing orders.

    Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.4%. And core shipping logged another 0.4% drop.

    Stocks were little phased, as they’re still marching to VIX’s drumbeat. But, the 2Y is back below 4% as First Republic reminds us that the banking crisis has not gone away.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 24, 2023

    Futures are flat this morning after climbing back from a 20-pt overnight deficit.  With scores of companies due to report earnings this week, we should be in for a wild ride.continued for members… (more…)

  • Earnings Suddenly Matter

    Futures are off about 30 points on disappointing earnings from stocks such as TSLA, AXP, KEY, etc. and a continuing slump in oil and gas.

    VIX is even popping as we approach the open. If it holds, the rollover in equities will have officially begun.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 19, 2023

    Futures are off moderately on light volume…

    … and, surprise!, a rebound in VX futures, but not VIX itself. Oh yeah, Friday is OPEX.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Algos Take Charge

    ES is up 1.3% in the past week. All it took was a 15% beatdown in VIX.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 17, 2023

    VIX came within .01 of its previous lows on Friday……leaving plenty of doubt as to the algos’ next move. Today, we should see some resolution as moving averages start to roll over.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Retail Sales Slip, VIX Warns

    March retail sales came in at -1.0% versus -0.4% expected and -0.2% previous. Core slipped 0.3%.  Early reaction is that the drop wasn’t enough to forestall another rate hike in May.  So far, the futures have taken the news in stride.But, it remains to be seen whether the algos will view the setup as positively.  VIX’s previous bounces off the TL from Jan 2018 have been tough on stocks.

    continued for members… (more…)